Trulance’s disastrous launch will hurt Linzess’ 1B 2020 projections

The launch trajectory for Trulance is about half that of the Amitiza launch trajectory. A realistic estimate of U.S. peak sales for Trulance is now looking more like 200-250M. This doesn’t bode well for growing the market leader, Linzess. Ironwood was counting on SGYP to have a decent drug launch, accelerating Linzess growth; much like the Linzess launch accelerated the Amitiza flatline trajectory of 2012. Add this, with IRWD’s own failures in the gout marketplace, it will be tough for the stock price to see any improvements. The CIC/IBS market ended up being a “zero-sum game” after all, showing us there really isn’t room, nor and unmet need, for a 3rd branded competitor, Trulance.