Long Term Plan for Valeant (CEO and CFO Cash In) = $60/share

If any of you nobodies actually sat in senior strategy meetings you know that the future is secure for this company. Joe Papa and Paul H large bonuses are based on a $60 US share price by 2020.

How do we get there?

Facts:
-Bausch +Lomb contact lens cost was dropped by more than 40% resulting in huge margin gains
-Dermatology Environment is changing and Valeant legacy drugs are not worth much
-Sprout (and Addyi) will likely not be meaningful contributors less a price drop
-Tons of issues with the name "Valeant", expect a name change in 2018
-Growing market share in China + India
-IDP118 + Vyzulta + Siliq + IDP 112 + Plenvu are short term launches (now - 18 months)

Option 1 (preferred)
- Salix continues on its tear (look at current script trends) huge growth in Xifaxan and Relistor in IBS-D. Continued strength in HE (management believes we are just scratching the surface in HE)
- Bausch and Lomb continues global growth (low-mid single digit top line, high single digit bottom line)
- Look at Europe, China, or at convertibles for a large portion of debt stack (reduced interest costs)
- New drugs contribute ~1B in EBITDA
- Valeant in 2020 looks like 4.5B EBITDA and ~21B debt (financed at lower interest rates)


Option 2 (easy exit)
-Continue to grow Salix sell at 13B+, share buyback with 1.5B, rest goes to debt (many interested parties in Salix but the highest bid so far has been 11B)
-EBITDA/Debt ratio gets vastly improved (pipeline with Vyzulta and Dermatology still strong in short term)

Option 3 (hard exit)
- This would involve having to restructure bond covenants as B+L and Salix are listed on the secured bonds
- Spin off the company into multiple publicly divisions (Salix, Ortho Derm, B+L) keep cash cow diversified
- Ideally you would spin off B+L on Chinese exchange where it could fetch 25+ P/E Ratio (thats $30B++)


If you are a current employee, ask for stock related compensation. Increase your stock matching contributions to your limit. Look for contests/bonuses to have your name stick out.

CEO/CFO/Treasurer cannot buy more shares because they are in a quiet period due to privvy information. It does not mean that you cannot buy more shares as an insider.

For the idiots who think Ortho Dermatology is going to be sold, this is completely wrong, the incoming offers are a joke in comparison to one of the pipeline drugs even being a $250M/year drug.

Mark this post and revisit in 12-18 months.

 

Nice try to get stock price up but the big money isn't taking that bait

 

Why would we want to buy stock that isn't going to be worth anything? I'm trying to dump what I have before it's worthless.

 

LOL...some Valeant bull idiot has too much time on their hand and trying hard to recover his losses. Your stock is worthless.

 

Lol is HR now posting here? No wait, that would mean HR understand how to count.

 

OP is very optimistic on how the company will execute. Not sure where it's getting the valuations from, but it's wrong. Seriously, $13b for Salix and $30b for B+L. Must be some good cannabis that it's ingesting. Oh yeah, Joe wants to sell you the Brooklyn Bridge for $40b to clean up his balance sheet. To date, they're still kicking the can down the road, the refinancing is just an extension of that plan, no serious dent made to the debt, just balance sheet shuffle.

 

They can sell trillions of dollars to this market, but the profits will be stuck there. Ask Mr. Taxman why this is the case.

 

So what’s people’s thoughts now that valeant are paying off debt with free cash flow and resolved the Allergan lawsuit?