BMS takeover target?

Interesting development....


https://seekingalpha.com/news/3421342-bristol-myers-squibb-may-takeover-target-celgene-bid-credit-suisse

 

No way...

 

That would be epic. Celgene stock would plummet and BMY would be gutted.

 

Just a nonsense article, they do this all the time.

 

Is it?

 

There are 19 (yup, 19!) financial analysts for BMS. This is the perspective of one, or maybe few. A lot of merger talks ongoing in pharma as a whole right now. I won't be surprised if something totally unexpected will happen. Anything is on the plate at this precarious financial times especially with the ongoing China debacle.

 

China? Has nothing to do with takeover targets!

 

True, China has nothing to do with takeover targets, but pharmaceutical companies are all about earnings and capitalism. Merging companies is one strategy. This China trade tariffs has potential ripple effects across the globe. No, China won't takeover US pharmaceutical companies. It is the trade tariff war that could push pharmaceutical to merge in order to survive. US drug developers may be in a tentative situation where American generic and biosimilar companies could be affected longer term by the proposed trade tariffs. the uncertainty of these new proposed tariffs may diffuse through the entire value chain of the biopharma industry and negatively affect US patients, payers, and generics and biosimilar drug makers in the years to come.

 

Hope the Celgene buy out works out. Celgene has an agreement with a Chinese biotech pharmaceutical company.

 

You mean Chinese biotech antengene? It's raised quite a bit of money already for financing ($120 million).

According to fiercebiotech:

"The latest investment was led by Chinese VCs Boyu Capital and FountainVest, with Celgene, WuXi Corporate Venture Fund, Taikang, Qiming Venture Partners and TF Capital also joining the round."

 

Do not forget the 2.2 Billion termination deal with Celgene if someone buys BMS. Do you think someone is crazy enough to pay that fee???

I do not agree with the purchase of Celegene. Many forces to consider...

Amount of US Debt and ability for medicare to keep paying top dollars for biologic drugs
US attitudes may/are negative with pharma companies
Millennials have student loan debt, car debt, possibly mortgage debt and how much is that drug with high deductible health care plans...

Of course if a Keytruda is in this purchase all bets are off...

Industry margins may not be safe long term, start looking for a new career...

 

Just released today. Another potential BMS hostile takeover article. This seems to suggest that it's from an activist investor if ever it happens. Pretty interesting perspective. This is the second article already mentioning about this takeover target.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-22/here-s-how-john-paulson-is-positioning-his-celgene-bristol-trade

 

The Celg deal is 72b 90b including the debt for the pipeline and a wide variety of agreements with smaller start ups. So my question is what does BMS have in the pipeline that is attracting the potential hostile takeover?

 

Exactly...the pipeline has stayed the same or even gotten worse (read about the IDO debacle, checkmate 227) in the past year. So the big players have had the chance to scoop up BMS for roughly the same price point for 2 years with a better pipeline “back then”. The big players waited on their heels for two years until BMS came off the market? Yea maybe, but more than likely it’s because BMS doesn’t have the pipeline and that’s why no one made a move prior.

So what’s changed now that this Celgene deal was announced? Nothing!

Additionally, the move was made to strengthen the weak BMS pipeline. Why would any company want BMS’ weak pipeline when they are admitting it’s weak.

These analysts need a reality check with their BS clickbait garbage “ideas”.

 

An “activist shareholder” (which I believe is the target of the article) primary goal is attempting to gain control of a company and replace its management. Typically this happens when an activist shareholder is dissatisfied with the company’s management. They want to buy or takeover a company in order to induce significant changes and increase stock value. Read about Carl Icahn and Bristol Myers Squibb......

 

There are a few activist shareholders out there and they like to shake things up.

 

Yeah, Carl Icahn, one of the popular activist shareholder, loves to instigate or fuel speculations about a company in order to push deals. Billionaire activist shareholders do this kind of influence all the time.

 

Icahn invested in BMS almost 2 years ago (exactly 23 months) at this point. You’d think if he was to make the impact of the takeover from anothe company that would have happened already.

 

He is not the only activist investor. There are others at play.

 

could Icahn be part of the Celine deal?