Congrats to Avanir Employees

To those who stayed thru the turmoil and saw the forest thru the trees, congrats! Yesterday was a watershed day for this company and only just the beginning. Your stock options are gonna be worth a lot more in the future.

 

Great, now we have 3 more years till we actually will see that agitation indication.

 

The above post must be coming from someone who is new to this whole industry and is a novice investor. Yes, it is positive news the phase 2 data was encouraging however I can tell you from deep experience following and investing in healthcare/pharma stocks this is not a big deal. So many many many things can go wrong from a positive phase II trails through the FDA approved labeling. IMO you are about 25% there to an official celebration. As you progress towards that 100% the chances for things to go wrong in many areas increases which is why getting an FDA approved positive label is so difficult to do as well as profitable.

If you feel like replying back using the stock price as a rebuttal.... keep an eye on the stock and you will see it gradually come down.... maybe not to the same level where it was but it will come down a few dollars over the next 6 months. You will also see it take a big hit with any slight bad news in Phase III as well as if the stock market in general takes a hit these type of short, quick, and hollow gains are often hit the hardest. This recent pop shows this stock is sensitive to any news so when even semi-bad news is let out it will take a hit. A reason to be encouraged here but certainly not a reason for celebration yet as you all have a long long way to go.

 

To All Avanir employees, you might want to do what your leaders are doing and cash out now before this collapses. You are alrady having difficulty selling this for its current indication and have little chance of getting it ever approved for anything else. Add to that that you are years away from even finding out, I see a very long wait where just about everything could go wrong.

 

To All Avanir employees, you might want to do what your leaders are doing and cash out now before this collapses. You are already having difficulty selling this for its current indication and have little chance of getting it ever approved for anything else. Add to that that you are years away from even finding out, I see a very long wait where just about everything could go wrong.

 

Or leave the company like some top people are ....Robert Bell! This is a hilarious thread!

 

Duh. You say you have deep experience in biotech stocks. If you did, you would know that small biotechs trade 90% on future potential. This PII trial blew away even the highest expectations out of the water. The company is in the sweet spot right now. They can sell EU rights including agitation for a mint. Waiting for these results is probably one of the reasons they haven't signed an EU partner yet. You're gonna wake up one of these days and see the same move up on the EU deal. That will be followed by the optinose approval and again another leg up on the stock. Too many logs in the fire at this point not to be optimistic.

 

Citing basic knowledge on inventing or watching Cramer once week doesn't make you an investing expert. Settle down already.

What are you selling EU rights to? A Phase II successful trial? You are assuming companies have approached Avanir to in-license the product for Agitation in the EU. Where are you getting your information from? Are you just assuming this?

What you and many others don't seem to understand is getting a successful phase II doesn't mean much in the long term profitability or success of the product. Getting an approved positive labeling is 100x more important than a very successful phase II trail. Getting acceptable reimbursement from a major HMO is tremendously more important than a very successful Phase II trial (Personally I think Avanir will have a HUGE problem here). I could go on and on but what is the point as you will follow the masses and be brainwashed into thinking it's time to celebrate. As I stated before it's a reason to be encouraged but not celebrate.

In addition, AVP825 is not a reason to celebrate yet as who knows what the labeling looks like. IMO this drug will not be truly successful as it is in a crowded market with the gold standard being generic. Ive seen this 100x where an older products are revamped and then tries to relaunch itself into a crowded mkt place like migraine. The studies show minimal efficacy benefits over extremely cheap products but does have a quicker onset of action. Are insurance companies willing to pay 3/4x for a quicker onset (1 hour) of action for these patients when funds are also needed to combat fatal illnesses like cancer, Hep C, MS etc??? What are your thoughts here? Rarely does the outcome meet company or market expectations regarding mkt share or revenues. I would wait to see the final label on this product before I would bet money either way but history does not bode well for this type of product in this type of mkt place. Do the research yourself if you feel this is not correct.

Looking fwd to your reply....after you watch some more Cramer of course.

 

BTW Avanir is not a biotech company. They are a small pharma company therefore they do not follow this rule completely. Also, this rule highly depends on the market in which the product will be selling. Skin cream vs MS has a tremendous difference in valuation.

If you look at a company like Intermune (small biotech) who just got purchased for $8.3 billion that would fall into the category of trading on future potential of a small biotech as obviously Roche well overpaid for this company. The difference being biotech drugs are typically more profitable than pharma products. Please get the facts straight. Let me know if you need any additional lessons on the bipharma market analysis. Thanks.

 

Whatever, I'm just trying to survive Thur-to-Thur here! Could care a less if my stock options triple if I can't make it one more year! Glad moral is good with all the VP;s Maybe we should dig deeper to see how the reps are doing!

 

you are both right... Avinir is doing what it should and price is going up as it should. Same thing with Concert Pharm off of this news. I remember looking at Jazz a long time ago and thinking (terrible name)... And never bothering to investigate it. I think it was around 5 a share then...

Not going to let this happen again. I also bet AVNR is looking at JAZZ through Concert. Most of these pharma's biotechs are PPS via expectations. Just like Jazz. If they made steel they would be 30 bucks... You do have to be careful. Betting on AVNR is a no brainer. I sold mine at 12 because I know it will come down to 10... That is 20% or so and a big big deal when your investing. We know the sales will grow from here because Docs. will prescribe it for ALZ patients NOW off of results and use an excuse to cover it.

Happens doesn't it ? You just can't lose swinging this stock for the next 5 years. Sales will be better on each quarter due to the off label sales.. Just an opinion...

 

Robert Bell has been trying to leave since 2012.

 

Close to the close of mkt today and AVNR is down $2 from it's high 5 days ago. Still has a few more bucks to fall before stabilizing. Guy up a couple of posts is correct. Stock will probably fall to close to single digits before stabilizing.

 

Geez give me some of what you are drinking.... You may be the most optimistic investor I have ever come across....ever. Optimism in investing is a very bad and dangerous personality trait. A high amount of skepticism when investing is a good thing. Good luck.

 

Has he really, I thought he was our main/Big in with Omnicare.
I wish he could help us get more coverage with insurers that don't require a PA.

 

Yes. Robert Bell just resigned! He never made much impact with Omnicare and neither has the company. His job is up for grabs....lot's of people applying for it and a secondary position they are opening with it. Good luck.

 

I sincerely hope they go outside of the company to fill it as it will be critical to get someone in that position with deep experience and established contacts in the managed care environment. RB could not do anything with his position what is someone inside with limited or no experience going to bring to the table regarding execution of main job duties?

 

Is it Thursday already....