concerns for 2015

Earnings growth for the fourth quarter now is estimated at 7.6 percent compared with an Oct. 1 forecast for 11.1 percent growth, Thomson Reuters data showed. For the 2015 first quarter, profit growth is seen at 8.8 percent, down from an Oct. 1 forecast for 11.5 percent growth.

Moreover, the magnitude by which fourth-quarter estimates are falling has increased compared with the previous quarter, said Nick Raich, chief executive officer of The Earnings Scout, a Cleveland-based independent research firm specializing in earnings trends.

In outlooks given by companies themselves - done by only a minority of companies - the news is not good. Negative outlooks outnumber positive ones for the fourth quarter so far by a ratio of 3.9 to 1, up from the third quarter's ratio of 3.3 to 1, Thomson Reuters data showed.

"That's a worsening trend," Raich said. "The outlooks have gotten a little bit worse this quarter."

Outlooks could become even dimmer if lackluster demand overseas translates into weak results for the fourth quarter

 

With all the rumours, should we be concerned about VRX's demise in 2015? Lots of colleagues are looking elsewhere

 

Absolutely. The rumor I hear is they plan to cut all the bozos.

 

That I'd be you so. Next!

 

Correction that would be " They plan to cut 99% of employees to cover $16 billion"

 

Are things really this bad?

 

Worse!

 

Why all the openings in derm? Never seen the like

 

Is it because of the launch of Onexton Gel? Pearson and Schiller need to push their products hard for the first half of 2015. Big reliance on Valeant reps to make management's dreams and stock options come true. Valeant needs to whittle down debt by realizing growth in sales, and also to get some credibility back for their business model, before they can try to rollup the next company.

 

This revamp of an existing product is going to be the next Lipitor. Once you convince managed care that this "in between" strength is anything more than a marketing ploy and once physicians are convinced it makes no sense to write, Mgt dreams will become nightmares! Only to shut it down three months later when nobody's buying this story. #typicalvaleantfail

 

Can they get credibility back for their business model or is it a failure?

 

Their model totally sucks! There is NO plan...

 

No way outa this baby.

 

Reuters reported Dec. 9 that Valeant is abandoning its growth-by-acquisitions strategy for now to try to strengthen its financial position.
The takeover spree has boosted Valeant's debt-to-equity ratio to 335%, making it vulnerable to a slowdown in growth or a jump in interest rates.

 

By comparison, at the end of Q3, various pharma debt to equity ratios were

Valeant 3.177

Actavis 0.533

Pfizer 0.475

BMSquibb 0.506

Allergan 0.302

Abbvie 3.184

Abbvie has a very intensive R&D program in small molecules and biologics targeting some really intractable, difficult diseases (hepatitis, cancer, autoimmune diseases, etc), and has various pipeline candidates nearing the end of their trials.

It is not entirely clear what Valeant has to show for their high debt. Toe nail fungus treatment, maybe.

 

Top Coat, Top Hat, and I don't worry cause my wallet's fat

 

Another "clean quarter" coming up. It will be interesting to see how Schiller handles the costs of the Allergan takeover attempt, along with the $400M that was made from the Ackman deal, on the Q4 report. Also to see how institutional and hedge funds have altered their holdings in Valeant during Q4.

 

Add to that a lawsuit or two!

BOTTINI & BOTTINI, INC. Files Class Action Lawsuit On Behalf Of Persons Who Sold Allergan Stock Between February 25, 2014 And April 21, 2014

 

cockroaches

 

Bottini & Bottini? or Ackman & Pearson?