Eliquis projected sales off 60% for 2014

Eliquis projected sales off 60% for 2014
By Eric Palmer EP Vantage Report 10-18-2013

When Eliquis was first released to the market, execs with partners Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY) and Pfizer ($PFE) cautioned that it would have a slow release. It was the third entrant in the warfarin alternative market behind Boehringer Ingelheim's Pradaxa and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) and Bayer's Xarelto. But data were on their side and they, and analysts, predicted big things for the new drug. However, an evaluation of data from drug information specialist EvaluatePharma finds that optimism is quickly waning as sales for Eliquis remain weak.

According to an EP Vantage report provided in abbreviated form to FiercePharma, analysts' predictions for 2014 sales of the anticoagulant have fallen 60% in the last 12 months. They now stand at $491 million. That is as projections for 2014 sales of Xarelto have surged by 81% and 60% in the respective territories for J&J and Bayer, to $1 billion and $1.4 billion. EP Vantage believes the dosing advantage and broader label for that drug "might have been underestimated."

While it was late to the market, the advantages of Eliquis had led analysts to believe it would take the market by storm. Eliquis and Pradaxa are both better than warfarin in preventing stroke. Only Eliquis, however, reduced major bleeding over warfarin and improved mortality. In fact, the Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) this week flagged its latest set of side-effect reports to the FDA, putting anticoagulant drugs at the top with Pradaxa leading the pack.

The EP Vantage evaluation points out that Goldman Sachs analysts were so excited by the superiority of Eliquis that when the FDA approved the drug, they predicted first-year sales of $350 million would be a "low hurdle." That looks to be way off now. Consensus for 2013 currently stands at $129 million, and that may not be reachable, given that it sold only $12 million in the second quarter. That was even worse than the disappointing $17 million posted for the first quarter. The report points out that in their first full year on the market after being approved for stroke prevention, global sales of Pradaxa were $875 million and $582 million for Xarelto.

The lousy sales in the second quarter are well known to BMS investors, who had to endure the company cutting full-year revenue and earnings forecasts at the same time it announced the remarkably weak sales for Eliquis.

Supporters point out that it takes time for the benefits of the drug to be fully understood and that it can be really difficult to get doctors and patients to change from a protocol they are accustomed to. But EP Vantage says it now appears that is going to take a whole lot longer than analysts first expected.

 

Work hard, I have Pfizer stock and I want to reinvest that dividend.

 

99% enjoy seeing Pfizer gets its ass-kicked to death!!

 

What do you think would happen when you cut 40-50% of the sales team right before the launch??? I think the answer to disappointing sales is to lay off more people this year!! Merry Christmas. You know its going to happen. You got to love the ELT here. I feel bad for my friends that are still here. The good news is that many/most have found better gigs or are currently looking and will be gone soon. Get out while you can....on your terms!!

 

The last thing Pfizer needs is more reps. on Eliquis. They call on these poor doctors 1 to 2 X's per week. Its annoying to everyone, esp. the doctors. That may be one reason the drug is going nowhere. Stalking a doctor to write a drug is not a good business practice, but it is one that Pfizer has perfected. Am I not right.

 

And PFE keeps thinking we're Gods gift to the industry which apparently we're not

 

I did get out, and haven't regretted a day since I did! But I am still owed a pension down the road, so hope that the clowns who routinely screw up launches here get laid off, retire or leave so that Pfizer doesn't completely go down the tubes! Like the above post, I still cannot believe Pfizer decided to cut/reorg PC right before a supposedly blockbuster launch! That there hasn't been a complete shake-up (including consultants!) says it all...

 

You are right. But why sign an agreement with BMS based on details?? How idiotic is that. As a person who has many years in the industry and used to see docs every four weeks, I know you can move product with less than 1/week calls. It's just a lot harder these days with access/formulary/and bulls**t Pfizer metrics. Lets not even talk about no pads/pens/dinner with the doc's wives programs(oh and lets not forget compliance concerns)! But I still believe laying of reps right before a launch is stupid. You're seeing less docs and the ones that are left I'm sure are very motivated!!! Motivated to find work elsewhere before they get laid off next time.

 

BMS owns this drug, not Pfizer. Signing liscensing agreements have always contained metrics. Calls are one of those standards. What is off is the number of calls Pfizer agreed to make. Its absolutely absurd to make calls to a doctor 1x p/week. And worse, Pfizer reps. are doing it with the same doctors as BMS reps. This is the definition of insanity which Pfizer has down to a science.

 

Actually, this is the problem: reps are annoying physicians and they are sick of seeing us so often not to mention a dm in there every few weeks with the same people who will see a rep; it is all rather ridiculous, wouldn't you say?

 

Everyone relax, BMS will take this baby to the moon. Just sit back, enjoy the ride and try to decide where to spend all your bonus money!

 

60% increase. Lol. Um. That shouldn't be too difficult since E has such a small share now. Showing a little increase equates to a large percent but not necessarily volume.

From the referenced First Word article:
Meanwhile, Eliquis, which is marketed jointly with Pfizer and was launched in the US earlier this year, posted quarterly sales of $41 million. Bristol-Myers Squibb has said sales for the anticoagulant will improve as the company gets more access to reimbursement. However, Clark doubted uptake would suddenly improve, saying "we're now in the denial stage of grief on Eliquis." The analyst noted "estimates keep coming down and pushing out, and they still keep coming in a little light," adding that it seems while "Eliquis may be a solid drug, it may not be the resounding success everyone thought." Goldman Sachs analyst Jami Rubin also expects sales of the therapy to remain slow, but suggested that a recently announced direct-to-consumer marketing campaign may improve uptake.

 

...speaking of which, who came up with that DTC campaign? can anyone tell it apart from the other NOAC campaigns other than maybe those who work in the industry?

 

Eliquis is not moving because it is BID. No one in cardiology believes that BID is a good idea.
We will have to undercut our pricing in a big way to see big market share improvements. Lock out the competition on formularies. That is the only way to sell this dog.

 

Correction to the other post. Eliquis was discovered by BMS but Pfizer fully owns 50% of this. We spent the money to fund the clinical research with BMS and took the significant risk that Eliquis would get approved ( and the significant risk that it would be a blockbuster). We both have contractual obligations to each other, Money spent, dinner programs, future clinical trial funding and yes #'s of details.

DVT will not save Eliquis, it is a fraction of the Afib market. Given the lack of promotional activity possible by pharma industry in 2013 it will be a VERY Slowwwwwwww uptake. Most likely taking years to pass Rivoroxaban but the message will get out and most cardiologist believe it will happen... sorry Pfizer probably not until Fall POA 2016. But it will happen.

Once the antedote comes out in next few years the gloves will be off and we can finally go after Warfarin. Which will still take years to convert. This product will go generic in 2025 and we will make 80% of the money on this drug in the last 20% of time on market. The real question is does Pfizer/BMS have the appetite to continue to overwhelm customers with reps as we are currently doing (not to mention adding Institutional sales reps in 2014).

 

Correction, BMS is the majority stakeholder on Eliquis and can cancel the contract with Pfizer if they choose, albeit with payouts based on the agreement made. DVT is a separate indication, and does not have anything to do with Afib. Typical Pfizer arrogance who does not know what they are talking about. Its this a surprise to anyone.

 

Eliquis is internally bleeding red. Time to cut the price and grab market Share

 

Cut the salesforce and marketing team at the same time.

 

Hey sparky, I believe the poster was implying the DVT market potential is much smaller than the Afib market potential. Thus implying a DVT indication will not immediately push Eliquis to significantly higher sales volume. Without deeper market penetration in the Afib market, Eliquis will continue to miss forecast.

I'm confident BMS maintains a strong ownership position in this drug. That being said, I highly doubt "canceling" the co-promote contract is as simple as BMS making a choice to do so. The contract is probably as thick as the ACA, filled with specific criteria and HUGE penalties.

 

Spuds

Once this drug hits 1 Billion dollars we plan to buy BMS and cut your ass. At that point we will not need you. We will then cut your sales force saving us millions and keep 100% of profits instead of the current 50%.
Can't imagine it???

Warner Lambert... Hostil take over! Buys right to Lipitor for our co promote
Pharma.. Buys rights to Celebrex
King.... Cut out the whole company, kept the drugs.
Wyeth.. Cut out the whole company, kept the drugs.

(The only co-promote that we didn't buy was B.I. because they are private company) The only reason BMS agreed to co promote with Pfizer is when Pfizer buys you... All the leadership will get a golden package on the way out.. and sales force will be scrabbling to find jobs.

2017 BMS.. COUNT ON IT!!!

Thank you for helping to sell Eliquis.