how serious is the salix rumor?

clock is ticking on the shareholder vote

 

solid salix news unlike shire rumor

even proxies are not delivered yet

they said mid august

hope we have plan B ready

 

Citigroup’s Liav Abraham thinks Allergan will make a move sooner rather than later:

It is unclear whether Salix is a willing seller ahead of its pending acquisition of Cosmo (a tax inversion transaction), which is expected to close in 4Q14. If Allergan is indeed interested in Salix, we believe that an attempt to acquire the company will be made prior to closure of the Salix-Cosmo transaction, as we do not believe that Allergan is likely to pursue a tax inversion transaction over the near term due to the associated requirement to issue stock, which would in turn require a shareholder vote, thereby delaying, and potentially complicating, the acquisition process.

 

A quick Salix deal would kill the Valeant offer. That Allergan management wouldn't go to the shareholders for the tax inversion approval shows how desperate they are. Clearly not putting shareholders first. I assume Ackman will have something to say about this.

 

AGN will tell Ackman to F-off!

 

Going for the tax inversion deal a few months after Valeant drops its hostile takeover will still be an option. Allergan is putting the shareholders best interest first as its a company that has been built (and is still growing)... based on its R&D. Allowing Valeant to slash R&D and kill American jobs so they can make a short term stock bump at the cost of long term growth, innovation, and discovery, is the real way that you don't put shareholders or anyone's interest first.

 

Analysts say Salix takeover would boost Allergan
Acquiring Salix (SLXP) would be a positive move for Allergan (AGN), two research firms indicated in notes to investors today. WHAT'S NEW: After The Wall Street Journal yesterday reported that Allergan had approached Salix and at least one other drug maker about a possible takeover as it fends off Valeant’s (VRX) hostile buyout attempt, William Blair analyst Tim Lugo wrote that a merger between Allergan and Salix would produce a "very attractive" combined company. Salix would provide Allergan with significant growth, according to Lugo. The regulatory risk of Salix's treatment for Iiritable bowel syndrome with diarrhea has been reduced as a result of positive data on the drug, the analyst stated. Moreover, a combination of Allergan and Salix would have "more obvious value" next year than a combination of Allergan and Valeant, Lugo believes. Salix provides more growth opportunities for Allergan than Valeant, Lugo wrote. Allergan could bid around $192 per share for Salix, according to the analyst, who kept Outperform ratings on both Allergan and Salix. Meanwhile, analysts at Wells Fargo believe that a largely debt financed acquisition of Salix by Allergan could boost Allergan's earnings by 8% in 2015 and 2016, and 11%-12% in 2017-2018. Including share repurchases, the deal could increase Allergan's 2016 earnings per share outlook to $11 from $10, the firm believes

 

Looks pretty serious now

 

Salix should be able to ask for the moon from Allergan. Allergan is running out of time.

 

The moon? How about the sun, moon, and the stars! I don't think I've ever seen a company with the bargaining leverage Salix has right now. Reports are that they are asking for $210 per share. If Allergen wants this they will have to pay more than Salix is worth. Heck, analysts reports list Salix as at $200 stock. Could go for $220.

 

Shows how much AGN hates Valeant.

 

$220 is hype, $180 is being thrown around by the experts... add a premium and it could go up to $200 but beyond that isn't likely.

 

You mean Valeant is running out of time right?

 

CNBC's David Faber is reporting this morning that Actavis is in the early stages of acquisition talks with Salix. Apparently progress with the Allergan/Salix deal has slowed. But Salix could still be sold to either company.

 

A bidding war with Actavis might change this.

 

Salix Said in Talks to Sell to Actavis as Allergan Fades
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/salix-said-in-talks-to-sell-to-actavis-as-allergan-fades.html

Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (SLXP) is in talks to sell itself to Actavis Plc, said people with knowledge of the matter, after it failed to reach a deal with Botox maker Allergan Inc.

Though no deal is imminent, an agreement between Salix and Actavis has become more likely in the last week, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. Allergan’s effort to acquire Salix stalled in recent days over valuation concerns and after Allergan’s shareholders reacted negatively to the idea, one of the people said.

 

I want Allergan to acquire Salix and be rid of Valeant, so of course, news of Actavis being close to a deal is bad news.

That said: "people with knowledge of the matter" have also said Allergan would sell to Valeant multiple times; that Allergan was nearing a deal with Salix (twice); and that it was only a matter of time before Valeant have Allergan by June; then July; then August; and now December.

I've learned my lesson: nothing's done until it's done.