Based on Fridays Diabetes call, I'd predict we're 100% safe for 2015. at least until the writing officially appears on the wall so to speak---with the onslaught of AZ blockbusters going generic in 2016. Unless I'm completely ignorant, just can't see AZ keeping so many field sales reps past late 2015 or early 16'. I mean that would be awesome, but not realistic. This isn't meant to be another useless sky-is-falling-yesterday layoff thread either. So far, AZ has taken the high road numerous times in diabetes and been transparent about no head count reduction---Kudos to leadership for that. I expect more of the same!
Talked to a couple of people in respiratory and they think they're fine in '15. Anybody fearful of being cut?
I have to agree with OP. It still makes sense to reduce the head count. Way to many reps in any one area. Sorry summit reps, or who ever you are, just dropping off Onglyza or Access info., this is one simple cut Topher could make.
I don't care what was mentioned on the conference call, the fact that going forward Diabetes and Primary care will have the same footprint is very telling. Look out for late 2015-early 2016 as the time the herd will be thinned. Reps in those footprints will compete for jobs with each other.
I do like my Summit rep, but she cannot detail or get into any product discussions. I have several offices where access is granted only if they need samples. I have talked to her about letting me call on those offices to try to sell product, and she understands completely, but also has her metrics to meet. Seems counterproductive at times.
There isn't really anything "safe" anymore. Take a look at the big picture. I mean really big. The CEO is under pressure to drive top line sales in any way possible. He promised investors he could do that and realize better value than the Pfizer offer. The only way he can do that is to have dramatic product launches. So, where there is a chance for dramatic product growth - essentially every product launch for the next couple years - they are running a 2005-era overkill reach and frequency model to try and add as much revenue to the top line as possible and to set growth trends that will excite investors. Yes, that's expensive and no it is not sustainable, but they have a couple years here where they need to make everyone forget what they passed up and save face. You see this happening with Diabetes and with Brilinta. It will catch up with them as the growth curves flatten and other products are lost to patent expiry. Top line sales will be too low and our costs for those sales will be too high. That will have the same investors demanding that AZ cut costs and become a leaner organization. I'll bet the overall organization settles in with about 60% of its current sales force when that round of cuts rolls through, but that's a wild guess. Obviously, the mirroring of multiple sales teams with matching geographies will make it fairly easy to thin the herd without completely abandoning customer relationships. ZS Associates is helping them set up this scalable structure for a reason. The table is set to fairly easily make cuts as needed. Oh, and while nobody can tell you whether that will be in 2015 or 2016 - you can bet it will happen. My personal guess is sooner than later, but it will be more a function of how the market responds to this years' results than anything else. You can take that to the bank(ers). Or ask anyone from Pfizer, Merck, Novartis, GSK or any other major player who have all been through these kinds of programs in the last 5 years.
Oh for Pete's sake here we go again with the predictions. Wouldn't mind if there was actually some substance to them, but so far all the "cut" predictions have fallen short.
We'll...hmmm...that depends on what your phone call was like today...who your new manager is, etc. You could be okay, but what if you got a manager that wasn't ideal? Better get to lookin elsewhere!
This dumbass again! God let it go dude. You were wrong and so many ways. Your boring is please move on.
AZ is perhaps the only major pharma company to not have cuts in almost 3 years now. They won't have cuts because they think the SOV model is King. They invent new positions where there is absolutely no need, such as the specialty respiratory position. No need for it whatsoever. Pascal is an idiot, which works to our advantage. No, we are fine, maybe for many years to come. I am so confident in my future, that I am starting a business on the side in January that I plan to devote half of my time to, or more. Life is definitely good if you work at AZ!
Well put. But remember, you're talking over the heads of most of your audience on this site. They were hired and trained to puke up review board-approved sales messages, 45 seconds at a time.
Some good points. Have often wondered where the cut off will be. Agree sales will need to be pushed and pushed hard up to the cliff. That's where we are now. As products start over the cliff steps will need to be taken to hold the bottom line. When that is your guess is as good as mine. If a good number of compounds are approved for launch in a timely manner that will certainly lessen the effect as you'll need more hands on deck. If not, well, we all know what that means. My guess is the upper echelon of AZ has plans for all sorts of scenarios.
I haven't posted here more than once or twice, so I'm sure you've got me mixed up with one of the other educated posters.
You just summed up AZ in one sentence. This place is full of denial because the truth is just too painful. I have been interviewing for 9 months and finally got to a final interview next week. I hope this one works out and I can free myself from this brain cell destroying job.
I agree. Good luck with your business on the side. AZ has so many sales rep designations, that it's impossible to keep up with them. No, I think we are all safe for a long time to come, as long as Frenchie runs this show. It's still hard to believe that fool turned down $119 billion for this company.
