The timeline and path to completion

We first said august completion, then November, now November has become the end of the year (because ackman's proxies are off timeline)

Until today, I never heard that the November proxy meeting would only remove directors, then at best take an extra 60 days. I thought that was the finish line based on our previous talks.

Does allergan have to accept ackman's board? Ackman mentioned that they can reelect their old members, and then he will have to file in Delaware court? WTF? Ackman said yesterday that there can't be meetings called within 90 days before the annual meeting. Which means the annual meeting is the earliest now?

- was the past two days a really long winded way of changing the timeline from November to late April without anyone noticing?

- if we keep saying that we have a clear path to success, why does that path keep changing?

- haven't we said all along that the proxy meeting is the last step then only today and yesterday it is not the last step but probably 2-4 months added? What happens after that?

- the path and timeline keep changing and effectively allergan has done nothing besides words yet. Does the clear path assume allergan stands still like a deer waiting to be hunted? What if they attempt to change the course of the path and timeline?

Do we need their $12 billion of free cash for the $72 of cash we give to their shareholders, as pyott said on mad money? What if they use it on a share buy back as an alternate way of creating value? Where does the $72 come from?

What if they take out leverage to buy a value adding company, wouldn't that add to the amount of money we need to pull? Can we? What if that other company is an overlap of what we do, like AMO or Cooper or Stiffel?

So much more can happen between now and April. What if credit becomes more difficult (not possible to be cheaper) Q2 earnings seem good, what about Q3 and Q4? What about any other event that would cause a price reset? What if all of these conference calls between ackman and his investor friends trip the poison pill?

Does victory assume our stock stays the same or goes up? Allergan does nothing? Tax legislation doesn't move? The 7 senators can't get anything done (probably a good bet there)? Money stays cheap, or the bubble doesn't crash on wall st as some are predicting?

Seems like a lot of assumptions and a really long time. We never seem to get any closer before the finish line is pushed out.

 

Are Q2 earnings good? I mean J. Michael is not specific he just give's a little taste of what's to come on 7/31 no specifics. Like most of Valeant's presentations it's big on noise but little on substance. Did he just bring this up because he knows Allergan will be announcing excellent Q2 earnings at the end of July along with a restructuring plan and maybe a plan for the $14 billion cash so he needs to dangle the carrot of "good earnings"
to then?

Also what happens if the "good earning's" are done with the typical shady Valeant accounting and Allergan's forensic accounts tear it apart in August in a more conscience presentation? How does that continue to effect J. Michael's credibility with investors?

Pearson/Ackman appear very desperate right now.

 

This seems to be written by someone from AGN than VRX which is good. This deal will not happen. Timelines are meant to be broken and AGN will control the timeline. Forensic accountants will destroy any numbers Pearson puts up and again this is what will happen:

Numbers go out by the 31st. Days later, AGN refutes those numbers. Analysts look at those numbers and then do GAAP analysis (not VRX analysis) on those numbers and report zero growth. Wall street catches wind of this and the stock starts to tank. Meanwhile AGN numbers are great (as usual cause they are a real company), their stock goes up and in the meantime they buy someone to enhance their attractiveness to their major shareholders. Those shareholders who Ackman claims supports the special meeting clearly express discontent with VRX and VRX now sees that the 14 Billion in cash that AGN had prior to the M & A of who they buy is now gone and they can't afford AGN. They pull out of the race, VRX stock tanks more, Ackman is left to decide his own fate as AGN stock still supports a high $160 share price due to the acquisition of who they buy. In the meantime VRX is in a real bad place and exposed.

 

You hope.

 

I wonder if Valeant retroactively lowered the Q2 earnings numbers, like they did in Q1, in order to reach their stated growth.

Let's also not forget that technically Valeant can still have a "one time cost" on acquisition rated writedowns which they can chose whether or not to report in Q2. Q3 is the apples to apples because it's outside of the one year window.

 

Oh I don't think hope is necessary! I think the reality is going to hit hard for VRX and it may be right around the corner. You know it too so don't sound so cocky!

 

Lol. Ok.

 

Lol. Ok buddy.

 

I like your optimism.

 

LOL . . . .Oh this explains their good numbers . . . .wow if I was Allergan's defense at this point and they pull this crap which I'm sure they will, I would start talking about how Valeant/Ackman actually disrespect their shareholders by constantly deceiving them with miss-information.

At this point it's painfully obvious Pearson could care less about shareholders and is only concerned about his own wealth.

Ackman we all knew was only in it for the buck as he readily admitted he does not know much about pharma, which has been more than apparent.

 

the timeline is 80 days march from now to Dec 18