The end of PCP? I don't think so...

Discussion in 'Novartis' started by Anonymous, Aug 5, 2014 at 7:20 PM.

Tags: Add Tags
  1. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    TOPICS


    How big is Novartis' LCZ696 heart drug? Experts bet on a key number

    August 5, 2014 | By*John Carroll

    In the pharma business, you're only as good as your next big blockbuster. And in Novartis' ($NVS) case, the next big cardio blockbuster--LCZ696--looks very good, indeed.

    The key number on the heart drug's ability to reduce mortality risks for patients, though, is still under lock and key for the next few weeks. But*Reuters' Ben Hirschler has been tracking the betting among groups of physician experts polled by some high-profile analysts. Heart experts polled by Cowen came up with a bet on a 23% reduction in the risk of cardio death for the patients in the study, which was stopped early on stellar but unspecified results. And at Deutsche Bank the poll of cardiologists concluded that 15% or better would be "highly relevant," according to Hirschler, with a number north of 20% expanding the potential patient pool for Novartis.

    Analysts at Leerink said back in April that the number had to be more than 20% to hit the p value laid out in the study, which should be good enough to win a market worth billions of dollars in annual sales. AndReuters*notes that Morgan Stanley has taken the bear position with a risk reduction of about 30% needed to persuade physicians to widely prescribe a drug likely to cost around $2,000 to $2,500 a year.

    The Biotech Primer: An insider's guide to the science driving the biotech and pharma industries

    This 200-page book takes an in-depth look at the biotech industry and the science that drives it. Although the industry itself is constantly changing, these fundamental concepts upon which it is built will remain important for years to come - and decision-makers who understand these fundamentals will be better able to evaluate and predict new trends.*Click here*to buy today!

    Sign up for our FREE newsletter for more news like this sent to your inbox!

    Once considered a marginal, high-risk program, LCZ696--an angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNi) bidding for first-in-class status--almost overnight became one of the top late-stage drugs in the industry's pipeline. Up until a few months ago, the company's cardio spotlight was reserved for serelaxin, a top prospect that has since dwindled to a side show as the data soured and regulators turned cold. Generic competition for the Diovan franchise, meanwhile, has arrived with a vengeance, roiling the numbers at the pharma giant as it restructures in a major asset swap with GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK). And with serelaxin out of the running, LCZ696 has assumed an outsized role at Novartis as analysts assess its potential for a quick recovery.

    And that potential is now all about the number. Without a solid figure to rely on, projections on peak sales tend to run the gamut, from the company's own bullish $2 billion to $5 billion to Deutsche's awestruck $10 billion top. EvaluatePharma pegged nearer-term 2020 sales at a much more modest $1.3 billion.

    The drug itself is a combination of two hypertension therapies, valsartan and AHU-377. Valsartan spurs vasodilation to flush sodium and water through the kidneys while AHU-377 is designed to block an enzyme that threatens a pair of blood-pressure lowering peptides. The FDA has a very high standard for heart drugs intended for a mass market. The question now is just how big Novartis' market-defining number may be.

    - here's the*story*from*Reuters

    Related Articles:
    Meet the new Novartis: Slimmer structure, same R&D commitment
    The EU's not impressed with Novartis' 'breakthrough' cardio drug, either
    Analysts, experts are dazzled by the blockbuster potential of Novartis' LCZ696

    Sign up for our free newsletter

    SHARE

    **

    Filed Under

    *

    Novartis

    POPULAR STORIES

    MOST READMOST SHARED

    Roche's pRED buys out Santaris in $450M RNA acquisitionHow big is Novartis' LCZ696 heart drug? Experts bet on a key numberAmgen preps for swift FDA review as Kyprolis/Revlimid combo stymies myelomaTakeda preps for 'stringent' R&D as a new boss takes the reinsJapanese researcher found dead amid a swirling stem cell research scandal

    COMMENTS

    HomeSubscribeManage Newsletter SubscriptionsAdvertiseContactMobile AppsRSSPrivacyEditorsList in Marketplace© 2014 FierceMarkets, a division of Questex Media Group LLC. All rights reserved.
     

  2. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    you must be smoking some pcp
     
  3. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    We all agree this will be a great drug if approved. It's just that our current PC reps won't be selling it.
     
  4. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Some will be happy, others not so much.
     
  5. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Which ever division sells it they will use about ¼ of the number of reps that they would have in the past.
     
  6. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    I am sure doctors would jump on this after Tekturna. Does anyone remember that BS we told the doctors about that drug I think they may be a little cautious about the new drug. Novartis has a problem getting drugs approved so let's see what happens. Recently BMS had the same type of drug in phase three got rejected because of side effects I hope this does not have the same fate.
     
  7. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    And is a great argument for needing far fewer reps to launch it. Much like the military where changes have greatly reduced the number of ground pounders needed, the pharma market has and is changing rapidly so that the large ground army of reps are no longer needed.
    Just like the military, there will always be some needed but the number, how they are used and how they do their job has, is and will continue to change rapidly.

    So new drugs and more sales for Novartis does not correspond to more reps. We are (mostly) gone.
     
  8. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Oh no ! Who will be delivering Pizza Bagelz Donutz & Bogus honorarium chex ??
    The horror !!!!!
     
  9. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    The cardiologists will laugh their ass off if their old Tekturna rep walks in the door. They will remember the diabetic flash card, TekAmlo/Amturnide and the Dear Doctor letter that was sent out. There is no way PC reps gets this drug, the company will start fresh.
     
  10. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Dont be so ignorant and stupid. They were selling against there own great products that they grew to keep the lights on at Novartis (Diovan&Exforge), efficacy was not there, it didnt work, and there was no MHC coverage.
     
  11. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    With all the banter regarding the details of all the various drugs and their competitors you would think that those would have been one of the variables taken into effect when Novartis and it's peers decided to shit can 40,000 reps over the last 4 years.
     
  12. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Similar to gallows humor.
     
  13. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    One thing I've learned from watching this board leading up to, and during the layoffs over the last several years: the Chicken Little's predicting the worst have not been wrong. They even had the dates and details right in most cases. I'm not talking about the trolls who wish for, delight in, and attempt to amplify reps' suffering. You can usually tell the trolls from the thoughtful and informed posters, and those have been right.

    Seems like there's too much smoke for there not to be a fire (or firings...) in this instance as well. Rumors PC won't be the division tapped to sell LCZ at all, and at best they MIGHT get a chance to apply for positions in the division that will sell it; no guarantee it will be approved in the first place and that the patch could go away at any time. It just doesn't seem like there's a scenario where PC survives. All the chatter saying the same thing with credible supporting dates and details make it looks like PC is a dead man walking.
     
  14. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Well put.
     
  15. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    When was the last time someone delivered and Honorarium check... 10+ years ago? These dopes are trapped in the past.
     
  16. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    The only dope here is the guy that thinks the Sunshine laws is about honorariums. Let me guess, you think that the much reduced and accelerating decline in access is due to?

    Don't answer, you are too freakin' dumb.
     
  17. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Hey fellow pharma-dudes, after we deliver honorariums to our totally awesome docs, let's get together and check-out what Tubbs and Crocket are up to down in Miami. Cowabunga!!!
     
  18. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Yep, drive down I your corp supplied clown cars dressed in your clown suites.
     
  19. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Delivering metaphorically speaking you half wit would you feel better if delivering were replaced by signing the honorarium docs/expense voucher? Typical brainless stooge. Drink more NVS kool aid.
     
  20. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    What type of adventures are in store for Michael Knight and KIT tonight? I have my VCR set to tape it. I bought a new tape last night. Do any RAD dudes want to help me deliver some metaphorical honorarium checks tomorrow?