Ken Frasier Said 2015 will be a tough one

I was just on a conference call a few weeks ago saying that we have so many product launches coming. Over 10. Now Frasier has recently said in an email that 2015 will be a tough year. When he says that it is a sure sign of layoffs. When the hell are we going to move past this? Sick of worrying every damn year about layoffs coming. Just cut what you need to in one shot and be done with it. Let's not prolong the agony!

 

Go read the Philly.com article from a week or two ago. The Merck spokesperson said of the 8500 layoffs announced in Oct 2013, 60% will be in 2015.

Read the quarterly reports - 10k on the EDGAR database or right on Merck.com in the Investors section. The layoff information is often buried in them.

 

KF's "business model" is centered around cutting costs, not growth. He is no different than you or me. We all have our routines that got us to where we are. He is going to stick to his routine until his quarterly reports to the board no longer work. I would say he has 8 more quarters then Merck will require a significant overhaul. Be well.

 

And you wonder why he is cutting? You misspelled your Ceo's name twice in your post!

 

Relax Ken!

Be Well!!!

 

Oh yay - another year to fret and worry about whether I'll be the one let go this time. This place sucks so bad I'm really hoping I get a package and get sent away. If it wasn't for the ridiculously high salary and little work, I'd forgo the severance and jump ship.

 

Rumor has it that the best package that will ever be available was the one we didn't take. Knew I should have raised my hand. I heard many young people from the Keystone region raised their hands and are loving being away from this machine. Let's hope we get another shot at it.
If so run!

 

You are spot on! For the next wave of cuts Merck should be honest and say "handraisers get xyz dollars this go around, moving forward the severance will diminish". Guarantee people will go in droves. So many Merck may actually have to conduct hiring events. Be honest Merck, this would be a win win.

 

Maybe Kenny can sell off another division in 15?

 

He would love to sell off CV but no one will touch it now. If the IMPROVE is slightly positive he will off load to make cash for a better bolt on company

 

His father Otis was a janitor and look what he became. Penn State University, Harvard Law, pretty impressive. He is doing a great job with the company for investors. The stock has grown tremendously since he took control. Unfortunately his tactics are only good for a little while longer. You can only "control costs" to a point. Eventually we have to have better products, better formulary status, better marketing campaigns, and better resources. To do that means spending money and cutting into profits for a short period. But that will not happen because quarter after quarter investors like profits. 2015 will be a horrendous year. Frazier has received word that the diabetes business is expected to continue sliding down, new anti platelet will most likely not have a successful launch, IMPROVEIT trial is expected by experts to arrive at negative conclusions, women's health is not performing great, vaccines are soft, hcv is not looking competitive, oncology is already facing mounting pressures about pricing(and pd1 hasn't even been approved yet), access to offices is getting harder, profit margins across the board are shriveling, and still there is more. We are going to hear more by Nov. or Dec. about coming layoffs.

 

In other words, this company is crumbling. It's much, much worse than practically anyone realizes. I don't care what his dad was, nor do I care where he went to school. Unfortunately, Affirmative Action zealots have pretty much destroyed any credit we can give to brilliant, hard-working minority scholars. I don't know what his real abilities are. Sad, but true.

Anyhow, I think the products are quickly leaving this once-great company and Frazier is bailing water out of the sinking boat, bucket by bucket, with his cost-cutting. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that it's his only option. And that option is close to coming to an end.

I think he's managed the downfall of Merck about as well as it can be managed, but he hasn't changed the fact that the company is dying. The stock price is still well below the $80 mark that it achieved many, many years ago (2004?). The Dow has probably tripled since then. MRK is down 40%. That's a horrific investment. It's becoming a horrific company.

 

What a myth. Compare Merck's stock performance to its peers over the same period and you will see how wrong you are about how impressive Ken has been as a CEO.

Forbes had an article a few months ago that ranked and graded all big Pharmas - Merck came in towards the bottom with a grade of C- as I recall. Sure isn't as impressive as Penn State or Harvard Law but I'll give you that it's still pretty good for a janitor's son.

 

Does that mean we should expect more from the son of an investment banker that grew up in Connecticut and less if his dad was a coal miner? Frazier has been a major disappointment for this company, the employees and the patients. Shareholders just haven't realized it yet.

 

But they soon will.

MRK is $30 by year's end.

 

If the quarterly revenues keep falling, you'll be proved correct. 2015 will see a sharp decline in revenue for sure, but it's not supposed to be falling now (although it is).

 

I don't need analysts or earnings reports. I can see my sales eroding. Januvia is in trouble. Growth is completely off the table. If it falls by less than 10% this year, that would be miraculous.

 

It's not just your Januvia, it's all of our drugs. Not looking good. Major reorg to be announced in November.

 

Followed by a major reorg announcement in June 2015 and major reorg announcement in December 2015.

 

Marvin Johnson did say layoffs shouldn't be considered an event. This is the reality we live in. We are going to have to remain nimble and make these tough decisions in order to make a better future for Merck.