what say you little fella? Come on now, you can do it. Something negative. RBC Capital Markets, LLC Michael J. Yee (Analyst) Event Reporting WK monthly sales for April 2015. GILD: Harvoni WK April retail sales are $1527M (-2% mo/mo); Sovaldi WK April retail sales are $283M (-2% mo/mo) This is the fist time that month-over-month Harvoni sales have declined, and we are watching closely. WK capture rate for Harvoni was 133% last quarter. Applying this capture rate and assuming similar -2% mo/mo trends for May and June, Harvoni is already tracking toward $3.4B for Q2, above cons $2.7B USA. Our IMS APP accounts for 43% gross-to-net for Q2 and predicts Q2 Harvoni sales of $2.8B USA. Assuming that Sovaldi continues declining 2% mo/mo, Sovaldi is tracking toward $399M (WK capture rate of 209% from last quarter), which is in line with consensus of $400M USA and our IMS APP estimate of $382M. Together, the Harvoni+Sovaldi franchise is tracking toward ~$3.8B in US sales, higher than IMS script predicted revenues of $3.2B USA and consensus $3.1B USA. As a reminder, GILD reported Q1:15 $3.4B USA, which beat cons $2.6B USA. WK "sales" appear very strong and imply revenue numbers that suggest another beat in Q2, but IMS scripts suggest sales in line with consensus—this may result from taking a 40%+ gross to net into account in our IMS APP. PCYC: Imbruvica WK April retail sales are $61M (+7% mo/mo), tracking toward $232M vs. our estimate $211M. We use last quarter's capture rate of 84% and estimate same +7% growth for May and June. We note that WK capture rates for Imbruvica have been changing recently (from stable 90%+ earlier last year to 77% Q4:14 and 84% Q1:15), and April's +7% mo/mo growth is much higher than IMS scripts growth (+1% Apr/Mar). BIIB: Tecfidera April retail sales are $296M (+3% mo/mo), tracking toward $712M USA, below cons $724M USA but in line with our estimate of $712M USA. · Tecfidera retail sales capture rate was 125% in Q1:15. Applying this capture rate and conservatively estimating flat May and June sales (IMS Apr:March scripts were flat), Tecfidera US sales are tracking toward $712M for Q2:15. On the other hand, assuming +3% growth for both May and June would suggest $734M. CELG: Pomalyst April sales are $42M (+4% mo/mo), tracking toward $146M USA vs. cons $147M USA. · Pomalyst WK average capture rate over the last year has been 89%. If we apply this same capture rate to Q2 and assume similar +4% mo/mo growth for May and June, this is tracking toward $146M in the US, in line with consensus $147M USA. CELG: Otezla April sales are 44M (+21% mo/mo), tracking to $93M vs. cons $85M WW. Even conservative assumptions of flat May and June and using Q1:15 capture rate of 143% suggest that Otezla is tracking to $93M in Q2. However, WK capture rate fluctuated from a fairly accurate 97% for Q4:14 to 143% for Q1:15, and thus WK Q2 estimates may be inaccurate if capture rates continue to fluctuate.
Also as of the end of Q1 Otezla barely had 1% of TRx share. And the winner for the tallest midget award goes to.... ... OTEZLA
Definitely trending lower. Christ a 1% market share can be achieved through a direct mail campaign no need for sales reps!
don't let the facts get in the way of a good crying like a pussy session http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=341&mn=197872&pt=msg&mid=14964471
The German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) has found that Celgene's new psoriasis pill Otezla gives no added benefit to patients, and is minded not to recommend paying full price for the medicine. http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/celgenes_psoriasis_pill_gives_no_added_benefit_to_patients_742378?utm_source=pmlive&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekinreview
The cost per prescription has gone up considerably, when Celgene took a price increase in April. Volume is not up, just the value.
What's the OVER/UNDER on Otezla this week? Will the flat trend continue (UNDER) or will there be a return to double digit growth (OVER)? All opinions welcomed.
It was UNDER: TRx +2%, NRx -2% w/w the groundwork is now being laid for a very ugly Q3 and Q4! Signed Little Fella
You do try hard. Why not plot the trend line? What is the projection for Q2, Q3 and Q4? What do you have to gain from hiding that? Try to understand basic math. Answer this for me - if a running back gain 20 yards in the 1st quarter, 18 in the second, 27 in the 3rd and 40 in the 4th finishing with 105 yards for the game, did he trend towards more yards each quarter? When finished, look in the mirror. If you actually do work you are with some big pharma slugs facing layoff and your culture sucks.
No big pharma here.. smaller biotechnology company where there is a mutually respectful relationship between sales and management. No need to whiff anyone's ass or show my cleavage to be "respected".. your management team is atrocious. But thanks for the math quiz. At least you're intelligent enough to do simple math? Unfortunately, many in your division are not
