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  #1  
Old 02-13-2011, 06:17 PM
Anonymous
 
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Worried ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Sales continue to dissappoint and inventories accrue. About 10 years of overall inventory currently in stock. Not so good news for manufacturing sites with a lot of interest in Vaccines as a way to keep people employed. Be aware of this. Not even having the FDA "approve" the vaccine for male patients seems to help the numbers.

Call on your confidential contacts at West Point, PA., Elkton, VA. or Durham, NC. to verify.
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  #2  
Old 02-13-2011, 09:22 PM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Anything's possible of course but this would mean that sales are only 25% of plan. Doesn't seem likely that Merck would wish to refrigerate all this just to toss it at expiry.
Manufacturing sites are expected to get clobbered when they are responsible for a stock-out but they also get hit if they manufacture foolishly to invventory. They put the brakes on producing to inventory well before they get to 4X demand. Cases where demand suddenly dries up will cause these types of numbers. Just a softening of demand ordinarily won't result in the numbers you state. More plausible is that the production capacity presently approved now has become capable of a peak production of 3-4 times actual demand. Something like 1.5 to 2 times average demand would be a good planned peak capacity for an injectable.
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  #3  
Old 02-14-2011, 10:41 AM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

This product has peaked!!!!! Not the strategic cash cow that was expected to be 4 or 5 years ago. Manufacturing continued producing to original plan for a while thus creating excess inventory.

Gardasil will continue to sell just not at the rate originally thought.

Definitely, a major overhaul of the supply chain is to be expected.
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  #4  
Old 02-14-2011, 02:28 PM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
This product has peaked!!!!! Not the strategic cash cow that was expected to be 4 or 5 years ago. Manufacturing continued producing to original plan for a while thus creating excess inventory.

Gardasil will continue to sell just not at the rate originally thought.

Definitely, a major overhaul of the supply chain is to be expected.
I hope that you are wrong. If the the gross margin is 95% on this product (it could be less but it is unlikely to me more) and we have 7 years excess (potential throw way) inventory at 1 billion sales planned/year, that would mean 350 million in write offs waiting.
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  #5  
Old 02-14-2011, 09:04 PM
Anonymous
 
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Unhappy Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

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Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
I hope that you are wrong. If the the gross margin is 95% on this product (it could be less but it is unlikely to me more) and we have 7 years excess (potential throw way) inventory at 1 billion sales planned/year, that would mean 350 million in write offs waiting.
....do you hear ...???Another round of layoffs for MVD!
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  #6  
Old 02-14-2011, 09:39 PM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Just do extended stability testing and extend the expiry. Seems pretty straightforward.
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  #7  
Old 02-15-2011, 01:28 PM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

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This product has peaked!!!!! Not the strategic cash cow that was expected to be 4 or 5 years ago.
When Kevin Connolly tried to explain to "tablet Bev" that NRXs do not turn into Refills in the vaccine market in the same way they do in those markets that involve chronic pill/capsule-based meds, his head rolled.

It was so frustrating watching the experienced vaccine folks (think Bill D and some of the more outspoken members of the old MVD management team) try to explain basic concepts such as "birth cohorts" and "once-youre-vaccinated-youre-out-of-the-potential-patient-pool" and "all vaccines share a more-or-less common method of action" to the "gotta maximize share and adherence and messaging with a maximum of 2-3 products per bag" USHH transplants.

Reality was not what Bev and her ilk wanted to hear.

They wanted to hear that the crazoid projections that the idiots in Marketing (post Kevin) were coming up with were not only achievable but beat-able.

I got out a few years ago ... is Bev, by any chance, still around damaging the business?

Also, does anyone know where Kevin landed?
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  #8  
Old 02-15-2011, 05:34 PM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
When Kevin Connolly tried to explain to "tablet Bev" that NRXs do not turn into Refills in the vaccine market in the same way they do in those markets that involve chronic pill/capsule-based meds, his head rolled.

It was so frustrating watching the experienced vaccine folks (think Bill D and some of the more outspoken members of the old MVD management team) try to explain basic concepts such as "birth cohorts" and "once-youre-vaccinated-youre-out-of-the-potential-patient-pool" and "all vaccines share a more-or-less common method of action" to the "gotta maximize share and adherence and messaging with a maximum of 2-3 products per bag" USHH transplants.

Reality was not what Bev and her ilk wanted to hear.

They wanted to hear that the crazoid projections that the idiots in Marketing (post Kevin) were coming up with were not only achievable but beat-able.

I got out a few years ago ... is Bev, by any chance, still around damaging the business?

Also, does anyone know where Kevin landed?
Sounds like you are talking about Bev Lybrand. Ha ha. Heard she did a bang-up job with Vaqta. Not! Reading your notes above, nothing has changed. Tablet folks still trying to sell vaccines like they are tablets was amusing at first but is a rather sad commentary on what has befallen MVD the last 4-5 years. I watched sales of Gardasil go down every year while sales of Rotateq went up. Problem was lack of knowledge of vaccine market with Gardasil and not caring about negative media reports. I am still on the payroll but looking to leave.
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  #9  
Old 02-15-2011, 05:40 PM
Anonymous
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
When Kevin Connolly tried to explain to "tablet Bev" that NRXs do not turn into Refills in the vaccine market in the same way they do in those markets that involve chronic pill/capsule-based meds, his head rolled.

It was so frustrating watching the experienced vaccine folks (think Bill D and some of the more outspoken members of the old MVD management team) try to explain basic concepts such as "birth cohorts" and "once-youre-vaccinated-youre-out-of-the-potential-patient-pool" and "all vaccines share a more-or-less common method of action" to the "gotta maximize share and adherence and messaging with a maximum of 2-3 products per bag" USHH transplants.

Reality was not what Bev and her ilk wanted to hear.

They wanted to hear that the crazoid projections that the idiots in Marketing (post Kevin) were coming up with were not only achievable but beat-able.

I got out a few years ago ... is Bev, by any chance, still around damaging the business?

Also, does anyone know where Kevin landed?

This is from another site dedicated to the idiocy that is MVD management-


I have seen a lot in my years here but the current regime is "priceless". A friend reminded me recently of Margie's first meeting. Yes, she is not here any more but the story still reveals a lot about the people who control our present and future. Margie talked about how successful we were in getting our pediatricians to "prescribe" the Merck vaccines. Looking around now, not much has really changed, has it?
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  #10  
Old 02-15-2011, 07:14 PM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

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Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Just do extended stability testing and extend the expiry. Seems pretty straightforward.
Just a question since I am not a vaccine person. Chemical re-testing and re-certifying is sometimes used for active ingredients and is used less often for tablets/capsules. How frequently is this tactic used for vaccines? Is it just a matter of analytical testing or is there more to it?
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  #11  
Old 02-16-2011, 05:07 PM
Anonymous
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Above posts about MVD/MVID make good points, but 7-8 yrs later, water under the bridge. Ok, a tidal wave and the bridge is out, but anyway, what I'd like to know is I thought some newfangled projection system (not COMET?) was supposed to prevent this kind of inventory build up. What happened? And, what does this say about vaccine resource allocation in MMD?????? I hope someone is looking long and hard at that one.
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  #12  
Old 02-16-2011, 05:15 PM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

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Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Above posts about MVD/MVID make good points, but 7-8 yrs later, water under the bridge. Ok, a tidal wave and the bridge is out, but anyway, what I'd like to know is I thought some newfangled projection system (not COMET?) was supposed to prevent this kind of inventory build up. What happened? And, what does this say about vaccine resource allocation in MMD?????? I hope someone is looking long and hard at that one.

I would doubt the original post as most vaccines had a 2 year or less expiration date so I find it hard to believe there is a 10 year supply in stock. Am I missing something?
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  #13  
Old 02-17-2011, 06:23 AM
Anonymous
 
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Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
I would doubt the original post as most vaccines had a 2 year or less expiration date so I find it hard to believe there is a 10 year supply in stock. Am I missing something?
Gardasil is filed with a 3-year expiration. Nothing about the first post in this string seems to add up.
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  #14  
Old 02-17-2011, 06:59 PM
Anonymous
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Correct. The Gardasil fill stage has a 3 year expiry. But the bulk stages to this product, before it is filled, have a much longer expiry assigned to them.
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  #15  
Old 02-17-2011, 10:27 PM
Anonymous
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Could be that this is a stockpile tactic in order to halt future production in one of the approved sites? If so, it would be preferable to have many eggs in the basket. Sometimes manufacturing issues get discovered well after the production date and potentially could implicate a substantial number of lots in inventory. West Point to cease Gardasil production?
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  #16  
Old 02-18-2011, 02:27 PM
Anonymous
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Could be that this is a stockpile tactic in order to halt future production in one of the approved sites? If so, it would be preferable to have many eggs in the basket. Sometimes manufacturing issues get discovered well after the production date and potentially could implicate a substantial number of lots in inventory. West Point to cease Gardasil production?
WP will only cease Gardasil production when sales totally undercut production. Slowly, that it happening. Sales have gone down each year in many territories based on stats that I have seen. After a launch, the numbers should go up, like Varivax did, almost every year. Instead, Gardasil has been going down, and the clueless tablet dweebs continue to fiddle on. Go figure.
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  #17  
Old 02-18-2011, 06:33 PM
Anonymous
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
WP will only cease Gardasil production when sales totally undercut production. Slowly, that it happening. Sales have gone down each year in many territories based on stats that I have seen. After a launch, the numbers should go up, like Varivax did, almost every year. Instead, Gardasil has been going down, and the clueless tablet dweebs continue to fiddle on. Go figure.
Actually, WP may cease production sooner, if we are unable to chase down the slow (yet steady) decrease in yield and increase(s) in process volatility. Can't really figure out what is going on (maybe if we had not eliminated all those old-timers that actually understood biologics manufacturing).
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  #18  
Old 10-01-2012, 12:40 PM
Anonymous
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: ATTENTION GARDASIL REPS / MFG SITES

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anonymous View Post
Sales continue to dissappoint and inventories accrue. About 10 years of overall inventory currently in stock. Not so good news for manufacturing sites with a lot of interest in Vaccines as a way to keep people employed. Be aware of this. Not even having the FDA "approve" the vaccine for male patients seems to help the numbers.

Call on your confidential contacts at West Point, PA., Elkton, VA. or Durham, NC. to verify.
Why would a company make so much inventory if the shelf life is only 3 years?
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