Dovato Sales: Lynne Baxter says it's awesome

Discussion in 'GlaxoSmithKline' started by anonymous, May 8, 2019 at 11:26 AM.

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  1. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Heard Lynne Baxter on the call today. She seems to suggest that the drug is flying off the shelves and that wholesalers are replenishing their stocks. I just don't see that as truthful.
    Can any of you in the field tell me your experiences? Are there HCPs writing a huge number of prescriptions for Dovato. Color me skeptical, but I just don't trust anything said by anyone in upper management
     

  2. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    It’s going great! 50%+ of the naive market is definitely happening in my territory. Dovato and Biktarvy will be battling it out for #1 foryears to come/
     
  3. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Dovato enthusiasm by ECLs is very low where 2DR buy in was non existent with Juluca.

    Biktarvy owns the business.

    I will get some scripts from my docs who like trying new drugs/early adopters but 2DR isn’t realistic.
     
  4. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    The solution to the 2 drug dilemma is 3 reps per customer. It’s just got to work!
     
  5. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Lynn's comment yesterday "We have made more calls than anyone else in history"
    1. How do you know that you have made more calls than anyone else in history?
    2. Say that is true, more calls hasn't helped Jehovah's witnesses, why would it help Dovato
    3. Although the original poster was being funny, my first thought was "this is exactly what viiv would do, and be convinced that this would work"
    4. The whole genesis of 2DR was wishful thinking, no reason to move away from that thought process when it has worked wonders so far. In the world of viiv 3 reps for 2 DR is "simple math"
     
  6. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    I don't think that Dovato will be the market leader. However, it will be a block buster with well over a $billion in annual sales. The ViiV portfolio is strong and Cab is coming. You must look at the entire portfolio.
     
  7. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    "well over a billion in annual sales" Wouldn't that make it a blockbuster?
     
  8. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Given that the number of HIV infected is fairly stable and Biktarvy is already crushing it, for Dovato to generate more than a billion in sales it has to take up someone else's market share: that certainly could be the DTG franchise or Biktarvy. If it cannibalizes DTG (triumeq, tivicay, Juluca) then there is no net gain. Unless it takes competitor business away just plain sales numbers are misleading.
     
  9. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    No way it takes hardly any Biktarvy. Might get a little naive (25%), and Triumeq switches. Might get over a billion, most at the expense of Triumeq. Cab will be a huge niche, for those willing to jump through hoops once a month. Injectables, even those much easier to use than Cab, will never have more than 10% of the Market. Our Portfolio will continue to shrink. It topped out in 2017.
     
  10. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Another factor that gets overlooked is the profitability of a drug. ViiV has a very..very profitable portfolio. We are small as a company and relative to the GSKs of the world we make a $hit ton for the organization. How will Dovato perform? IMHO, it will do ok. Just average. But average in our world is extremely profitable! That's what you should be talking about.
     
  11. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Do not forget the third leg of the stool: unregulated price increases could be just the trick to make mgt think they are the genius’ they want us to believe. Fake market!
     
  12. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    In addition, a huge majority of the market it will be getting will be our current product, Triumeq, at a 30% price bump. Therefore, just to break even we need to get 30% more Dovato than we bleed from Triumeq.
     
  13. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Whilst I agree with a lot of what has already been said, consider this:
    Viiv supposedly generates 40% of GSK profit. I have heard that number fluctuate from 25 to 40 depending on the executives mood. It is probably a pulled out of ass number anyway. If viiv were to go from whatever the real profit number to GSK down to 50 % of it (so if 40%, down to 20) it would certainly make Viiv less attractive in the eyes of the GSK folk. Remember GSK is not doing so hot themselves. A lot of their decisions including Tesaro and respiratory will come to be self inflicted wounds in the future. Besides the ONLY product that is helping GSK stay open is Shingrix. Viiv is GSK's past shingrix. Viiv is only as valuable as GSK decides it is. GSK executives have showered themselves with bonuses when their divisions were bleeding.
    Now even if Dovato does well, it will cannibalize Triumeq, I think Triumeq is more expensive than Dovato, which means for the same number of prescriptions written for Dovato as Triumeq, assuming a one to one shift, the company makes less money on Dovato. As for the poster who said "unregulated market" remember Viiv played to the Fair Price coalition in the first place while pricing this pill. Once you crawl up a radical advocacy groups ass to curry favor, they will call you out every time you seem to go against them. I dont see how Viiv could possibly raise the price of Dovato retrospectively when even today purchasing DTG and Lamuvidine separately is way cheaper than the combo. The public and media backlash if dovato ever dominates the market will scare them shitless.
    As those of you who work in the company know, leadership is changing. It takes two to do one persons job now. This also means that going forward the percentage of rational and logic based decisions will go down even further (not saying that there were too many to start with over the last year)
    I hope what some of you say about Dovato is true, but the first 12 week data of the NBRx will be crucial to establishing a trend here. If the company does well, it helps all of us survive here a little longer.
     
  14. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Caveat on what you said about Shingrix. Shingrix is a vaccine which has a very low profit margin. Yes. its sales are high. But the amount of profit is not what typical pharmaceutical and biologic products generate. My kid sold 100 cups of lemonade last Saturday at .50 per. He made $50 in sales. After expenses: Cups, ice, and ingredients his profit was $25. Now, my daughter sold homemade "slime" over the internet. She only sold 20 cans. At $10 per unit. She had $200 dollars in sales. Her costs: Ingredients and containers totaled $25. Her profit was $175. It's basic economics for all you dim wits. Vaccines is a high volume low margin game. ViiV is far more "profitable" than Vaccines or Gen Pharma. It's a fact! Do we have challenges? You bet! But we generate a very nice profit.
     
  15. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Give me ONE good logical reason patients whether treatment-naive or switch would be better off on Dovato over Biktarvy. If you were HIV+ would you want to be experimented on with a “new” 25 year old NRTI with an extremely low genetic barrier?
     
  16. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    I doubt most people understand the science of 3 vs 2 DR. Dovato is Triumeq minus Abacavir. All Viiv did in response to concerns about Abacavir was to subtract Abacavir from the regimen and went "Viola! 2 drugs are as good as 2!"
    The truth of the matter is that 2DR works, and did so in the clinical trial where compliance was being monitored. But in the real world where compliance is more a hope than a certainty resistance will emerge. Not a question of if, but when. With 3 DR no one will say that it was the drugs fault because it is the standard. The drug didn't fail the patient but the patient failed the drug.
    With 2DR making the case that the patient failed the drug will be way more difficult and signal the death knell of a regimen conceived out of desperation and intellectual languor. The first few reports of resistance will be the end of the 2DR era, more importantly the 3DR competitors will go "we told you so" and any brand loyalty will be gone into the gutter forever. 2DR has no real scientific advantage over 3DR in a market where single tablet regimens are the norm for both.
    And I would take a 3DR any day of the week.
     
  17. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    There aren’t any. It’s all we had in the bag. Our expectations for this drug will start off high like they did for Juluca, just pray a year and a half after launch we aren’t sitting on a 2% Market Share like that drug. After talking to my customers, I have a feeling it’s going to be a similar launch.
     
  18. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    It will be a similar launch for Dovato because at the end of the day what clinical or safety concerns does Dovato address? The risks of Dovato FAR outweigh the benefits as there is no easier nor more prevalent resistance mutation in HIV+ patients on treatment than the infamous “M184V.” One M184V mutation and now the patient is taking Tivicay monotherapy and we know how that movie ended.
     
  19. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    After 1 month, hard to get any buy in with Dovato. It’s like Juluca, only harder because we are supposed to be going after naive. Only possible patients I’m seeing are from Triumeq.
     
  20. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Like eating a leg and pretending that it was from the all you can eat buffet.