JNJ

Mitch Gold and Richard Brewer certainly did a huge disservice to advanced prostate cancer patients, the employees of Dendreon, and the long-term shareholder supporters of the Company by putting their own financial interests far ahead of all other interests. Going foward, both Gold and Brewer will be nearly completely out of the Dendreon picture within the next few months. Good riddance.

That said, Provenge is a revolutionary cancer treatment that provides very good patient survival benefit with little in the way of treatment related side effects. Provenge certainly derserves a meaningful place in the treatment options offered advance prostate cancer patients. The many detractors of Provenge over the years hopefully will fall by the wayside as more and more patients get good results from the treatment and MDs get more comfortable prescribing it. The prostate cancer patients and the hard working employees of Dendreon certainly deserve success given all the obstacles they have had to overcome over all the years. I so hope that the good side that is Dendreon prevails in the end.

 

You write: "Provenge, 8 month. In that case Taxotere is 10 month."

50% of advanced PC men refuse Taxotere because of the side effects so it is a moot point half the time.

Provenge has almost no side effects. It is the percentage play on both safety and efficacy.

 

You hope Dendreon prevails in the end? You can stick a fork in Dendreon. It's over for Dendreon. Dendreon would not normally be a $9 dollar stock. The really smart money (the short interest) understands the class action suit and the liability on Dendreon and the chances of a settlement in the billions. They also understand that any takeover will have that civil liability and all other legal liabilites priced in.

That being said, I do hope provenge prevails in the end. That will be completely independent of Dendreon. What is your agenda in saying you hope Dendreon prevails? That would not be the best option for cancer patients. The best option for cancer patients would have huge pharma owning the therapy. Since you are not rooting for the best option for cancer patients and you seem to think Gold and Brewer can just walk away from their heinous crimes as rich men and all will be well, I'd like to know what your agenda is? Do you work in HQ?

 

"What is your agenda in saying you hope Dendreon prevails?"

Because 1,500 good people working at the Company are working hard to help cancer patients. You obviously have an agenda rooting for the Company to fail so you are either:
1) making a self serving financial bet that the Company fails - so you post unsubtantiated nonsense trying to hurt the Company at its employees all day long, or 2) or your a mentally ill degenerate hoping that cancer patients do not receive very good medical treatment.

 

"Tell us what you are smoking? Provenge, 8 month. In that case Taxotere is 10 month. What are you talking about. FDA look at the Frozen Provenge, go read the FDA opinion. Dude, read Taxotere papers, see what was the OS for men without symptoms, reality check."

from the ASCO-GU recent medical conference - Provenge offers a 7.8 month survival advantage when taking into account the fact that 64% of trial placebo patients crossed over to active Provenge treatment on disease progression (see first abstract):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/idUS272544+31-Jan-2012+BW20120131

contrast this to the trial data that Taxotere was approved on, ie only a 2.4 month survival benefit - infusion every third week for 10 cycles (the once weekly regime did not even offer a survival benefit):

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa040720?ijkey=ac213e43e829dda7bf0fd3c11214e6786b9d4755&

 

My agenda: I have been a pharma/biotech investor for 25+ years and I have also had a relative who died of Prostate Cancer. I currently own some Dendreon shares that I have been picking up at these low prices.

I have been involved in lots of stocks that have had shareholder lawsuits because management was too optimistic based on 20/20 hindsight. Everytime these lawsuits are settled for pennies on the dollar assuming the whole thing isn't dismissed. It is hard to prove fraud vs incompetence vs changing circumstances etc. I am not too worried about the shareholder class action lawsuit.

And I too would welcome a buy out (above $25+ per share.)

So who are you and what is your agenda. Thanks in advance.

 

Aren't you a mentally ill degenerate rooting for your own self interests when the truth is that separating Provenge from Dendreon would be THE best possible case for cancer patients. Aren't you a mentally ill degenerate stating the number of employees as the pre-layoff number? The number has to be closer to 1000 now. There is a chance that most employees who work in plants would keep their jobs and as for the sales reps, the few talented ones still left can always get good jobs and the less talented ones who want to continue working at this cesspool know that Dendreon is the best they can do and really should be evaluating other lines of work. There is no possibility that there are a lot of talented people left at this company. Not a chance. This place is not just a cesspool but its the bottom of a cesspool. They keep ecoli like MG and DB around. Normal companies not under investigation would have kicked them to the curb long ago

 

You can not cherry pick the data with voodoo science and statistic. If you read the FDA 150 page summary, assuming you can read and comprehend science then you will have your answer regarding Frozen Provenge. Promoting OS that is totally out of reality and off lable not only puts Dendreon in more trouble but also shows lack of understanding of the science.

You can not use abstracts to promote and expect folks to believe you. This was a data mining done by Dendreon and asking two outside physicians to put their name on it. Ghost writing is very common in Pharma.

Again, it is easy for Dendreon to conduct a trial against placebo or Taxotere without use of Frozen Provenge to see the real OS. If Dendreon is sure then there is no reason for them not to.

 

The trial results would have been better if no crossing over to Frozen Provenge was allowed. Of course, that would also mean that patients on the control arms of the trials would be denied a chance at life. No ethical trial designers would do that.

 

Not sure it is "easy" to conduct another trial. First, there is the cost issue associated with such a trial. Second, the number of patients required would be substantial to prove superiority or non-inferiority. Certainly, it would be an interesting comparison to me, but not so sure how true researchers would feel about the question.

You comment does raise a question, though: Do you think Zytiga and MDV3100 should be compared to Taxotere in the asymptomatic patient population? Zytiga was compared to placebo in the recently announced trial in that patient population.

 

Why would you want to test Taxotere in a asymptomatic patient? No clinician is ever going to use chemotherapy in a asymptomatic patient.

 

Another interesting quote from Biotech Analyst David Miller on the subject of Zytica not extending overall survival in the latest Zytica study for use in pre-chemo:

"Any small company arguing PFS was OK & OS didn't matter competitively in PCa would be laughed at. w/o OS, Zytiga is dead meat"

 

August 3, 2011

"There's something wrong here and I don't think anyone really knows exactly what it is," said Cowen and Co analyst Eric Schmidt."

August 4, 2011

"Given management's confident tone just weeks ago, and our own checks, this is a shock," said Christoper Raymond of Robert Baird & Co.

Pertaining to Mr. Schmidt's quote I think the criminal justice system is very close to finding out "exactly what it is."

 

Side by side comparison of increase in Overall Survival:

1. Provenge has a medium increase in survival of 4.1 months. Probably (but not officially) 8 months if factoring placebo crossovers to frozen Provenge.

2. Zytiga has a zero increase in overall survival pre-chemo.

3. Taxotere has a 2.4 month increase in overall survival plus serious side effects.

4. MDV3100: The "PREVAIL" study for pre-chemo (the space that Provenge competes in) is still enrolling. Probably 2+ years away from results and approval in that label.

The future for Provenge looks very good indeed!!

 

Yet you do not even know the word "median."

Last I knew JNJ doesnt have legal liabilities that dwarf its market cap. That's the joke of all this. Provenge may be a fine drug. Dendreon has legitimate legal liabilites that are multiples of its market cap. Dendreon is done. Hopefully Provenge has some kind of future.

 

The average final settlement for shareholder losses of $100 million is around 5% of the loss. When the loss is over $1 billion the average settlement is 2% of the shareholder losses. See the chart on the link below.

Given that this lawsuit is just over the withdrawal of guidance that proved to be overly optimistic I can't imagine that the final settlement would be for more than 5% of the total loss in market cap.

Time will tell.


http://www.nera.com/extImage/BRO_Recent_Trends_SEC1288_FINAL_0307.pdf

 

Thank you for that post. That is very enlightening. Here is where I differ with you. Most class action suits are not in cases where the Feds are investigating as well. In my opinion this matter is going to go to criminal court. If the criminal court ultimately proves what I have no doubt happened then the class actions do not have to settle for amounts like the 2% or 5% you mention. It will be far greater.

You can stick a fork in dendreon. They even continue to harbor Mitch Gold. It's just an absolute circus. Their desperation has reached such heights that they are beginning to post on this board. There is another post in another thread that seems to me like intimidation and attempts at obstruction of justice.

 

I have seen no evidence to support your claims but for the sake of argument lets say they have to pay the typical 2% of the $3 Billion in market cap loss for $60 million to settle the stockholder class action lawsuit claims plus lets say $100 million in penalties to the goverment for some hypothetical wrong doing then that would only be $160 million out of pocket and their insurance would pay for at least some of that.

Also lets say that it takes 3 years to go through the courts etc. Dendreon might have one billion in annual sales by then and a market cap north of $5 billion in which case they can easily handle any judgements.

On the other hand if sales stay flat then it becomes a big problem. It all comes down to sales. They also need to get better control of their costs.

If you are making some kind of financial bet on Dendreon going out of business you might be making a big mistake.

 

Good conversation. This is what these boards are all about.

Settlements besides what insurance may or may not pay have to do with how much money a company has. Dendreon right now has 600 million in cash and they are losing money and no one knows when they will make money if ever. They claim 500 million in revenues is their breakeven. I for one do not believe that is possible. They are always wrong and there is no way to trust what they say. Their costs and turnover is astronomical. If Dendreon is going to remain Dendreon and they have to pay money along the lines you described they will almost assuredly have to tap the capital markets for another shelf offering.

It is possible that Provenge has a good future and for that reason the end of Dendreon will not mean they are going out of business. It means that the Provenge science and the factories would be bought in a takeover. With all the outstanding litigation and liability in what are legitimate suits and the high COGS and the complicated process and all the questions marks I do not see much of a premium over current market price. Even a 50% premium is a $15 dollar stock price and about a $2.3 billion dollar purchase price. Not sure why or how anyone would ever pay more than $2.3 billion with all the legal liabilities included. Too risky. Those who are betting on the future of Dendreon or hoping to chase their money like gamblers do to get the money back that MG and others stole from them in my opinion are fighting a very lost cause.

 

Reply 51

There is no need to again test Taxotere in asymptomatic patients. TAX 327 trial did that and yes, if we cherry pick, OS is more in asymptomatic patients and that is why Taxotere label is for all mCRPC patients no matter of their symptomology.