my theory on the Lilly lawsuit

Without knowing the specific details of the suit or the terms of the collaborative agreement...

I'm thinking that this is an attempt to get Lilly to buy Amylin. It makes the suit go away.

Maybe this is wishful thinking...

I just can't imagine why else they would do this. I don't have a lot of faith in our management but they are not total morons, so they must have a plan.

 

Right, like they weren't total morons for inking deal with Lilly to begin with?

 

Where exactly do you think amylin would be without Lilly's 135 million?

 

.....not be (that is the question). Without the loan from Lilly, deeper and deeper budget cuts and eliminate free handouts.

 

Best strategic play of this century.

May 4, 2011 Amylin secured $165M loan (CFO announced at Deutsche Bank 36th Annual Healthcare Conference).

May 16, 2011 Amylin filed "Complaint Alleges Anticompetitive Activity and Breach of Strategic Alliance Agreements".

___, 2011 Court awards Amylin $165M. Lilly $0.

 

Fantastic! Lilly will be begging for mercy.

 

Amgen's legal dream team will crush Lilly.

 

And this is posted on the Deutsche Bank 36th Annual Healthcare Conference website exactly where?

 

Q&A

 

Here's what is more likely to happen.

Lilly is developing their own QW GLP-1, they have insulin, and a co-promote for oral DPPP-4. Amylin wants out of the contract. Lilly is disappointed with the contract. Contract is broken. Amylin is no longer tied to Lilly, and the contract making it financially difficult for another company to buy Amylin is broken.
Pfizer swoops in and buys Amylin and all it's intellectual property. Dan and the board walk away with $40 million each, and everyone's happy. New drugs are developed and actually approved.
Pf keeps the Amylin salesforce, beats the mgmt team into shape, gets Byd. approved and wipes NNI off the map.
Perfect world, we win, Novo gets a bloody nose. win win

 

http://investors.amylin.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=101911&p=irol-presentations

 

We have to wait an see to get the real deatils of the lawsuit...
My thoughts are that Amylin management has no been happy with Lilly for some time. lilly has no respect for Amylin and will not listen to OGK and team. Lilly has been wise not to listen to Amylin in these key areas. However egotistical Amylin believes otherwise and therein is the problem. The lawsuit is just a smokescreen for something else entirely. We might get what we want in the long run, dissolution of the partnership, but look who is left to develop the Bydureon, do you have confidence in Dan, OGK, CW, LP (clinical) , VM, DP (quality) ,ML (regulatory)?

 

Yes.

 

Not just no. Hell NO!

 

Wake up the problem is you hiched your rowboat to the tiatanic on its way down. Great plan next time do a little research on how Lilly has treated past partners?

 

Big pharma don't like multiple relationships. With Lilly and Takeda out of the way, M&A and fresh relationships can spring forward.

 

everyone is graded on a curve. question isn't do we have confidence in those folks, but are they better than the lilly folks.

 

No they are not better than Lilly folks. AMLN folks are better at development (or at least were until they gutted the development program) and Lilly folks are better at commercial and marketing. Considering that Bydureon and Byetta are commercialized, Lilly should be leading and the Amylin folks need to get out from behind their over-inflated egos and learn something from their partners.

 

I think it's hilarious that you even think you are in the same class as NNI. NNI is in a class by itself--35 straight quarters of double-digit growth. No company in any industry has matched that accomplishment. You guys would be happy just to lose less money this year than you did last year. Get a product that's worth a shit on the market before you start trying to conquer the world. It'll take a ALOT more than Bydureon, that's for sure. You guys are a joke.

 

Pfizer's one foray into diabetes didn't set the world on fire. They lost nearly $2bn betting inhaled insulin would be a success.