Oral Sema

While the data look terrific so far, I have a problem with the business case.

Assuming oral sema must be priced at par with sitagliptin or invokana per dose, and the production price of oral sema per dose is about 100-fold that of sitagliptin and invokana, what is all the fuss about ?

 

Your "business case" makes no sense! I'm no expert on pricing, but I do know that you can't compare an oral GLP-1 to an oral DPP-4 and/or SGLT-2's. It isn't even a close call! For all of those patients who could benefit from a GLP-1, but are afraid of needles, this will be life changing!

 

I just hope I'm still around to sell it.

 

Efficacy the same as jardiance

 

Bwahahaha!!!!! Sure.....

 

Is that what your company is telling you? LOL!!!

 

We have YEARS of experience telling us that we will mess this up. Medical team s#%t the bed during the FDA meeting with Victoza. Welcome BS black box. Turned around and did worse with Tresiba and it delayed launch like 2 years. The Ozempic launch strategy is laughable, at best. Why would anyone think Oral Sema will be different. Our most senior medical people are, at best, failed PCP’s and our marketing leadership consists of other company’s cast offs. We will, once again, have the best product no one can get.

 

Doesn't Victoza dp $3 billion+ in sales? And, Ozempic is already doubling the dulaglutide launch trajectory. We don't do everything right, but we don't do everything wrong either.

 

Yes, but the PRODUCTION price of one dose of oral sema is comparable with the SALES price of one dose of DPP-4 and/or SGLT-2 ?? This business does not look like a home run.

 

you are an idiot COGS is less than 7% of WAC

 

No it's not. You're assuming a linear cost based on dose - if 1mg of Ozempic costs $X to make, that doesn't mean 200mg of oral sema will be $200X. The cost is in the production, not the dosage strength. Try again.

 

Sounds great. So we can price oral sema on per dose par with invokana and expect to get great business ?
Good luck with that.

 

obviously competitors and wall street are both interested based on this thread!

 

Please cut the BS. What is the cost price per tablet containing 100 mg invoking vs a tablet containing 14 mg of semaglutide ? Do you seriously think it will be good business to sell these two tablets at comparable price ?

 

I'm pretty sure neither we nor the competition post the cost of making our medications. We report COGS on our income statement, but there are a million things that could go into that. And, we're a long, long way from a pricing strategy at this point. Let's work on getting it approved first, ok?

 

At the end of the day, it comes down to do you want to take an injection once a week with better a1c and weight loss or a pill once a day? Also, if the pill is priced more than said injection, what will managed care companies do?

Ozempic will always be >> oral Sema in sales and anyway, Trulicity will always be the market leader (according to analysts).

The oral studies have been a mixed bag. Seems it lies somewhere between an sglt-2 and victoza. Ozempic is clearly superior.

 

^^ yup

 

Institutional ownership of NVO is in the single digits. Wall St doesn’t really care about our stock. Employees who have hundreds of thousands in their 401k? Maybe.

 

Good luck with pricing oral sema at a large premium over invokana. I like the science behind oral sema, but the business looks dead on arrival.

 

It’s Afrezza. People overestimate the desire of patients to abandon the needle.