Storm clouds getting darker for troubled Seattle biotech Dendreon

Bloomberg News
"Dendreon DNDN shares fell another 7% in early trading on Friday after Deutsche Bank piled on the dreary outlooks that have beset the company in recent weeks and downgraded its shares to “sell.” Dendreon shares were off 23 cents to $2.96 in recent action, down to a level not seen in more than four years.

Deutsche Bank analyst Robyn Karnauskas said in a note to clients that Dendreon is having trouble extricating itself from a cycle of increasing costs and falling revenue as its primary drug, the prostate cancer treatment Provenge, continues to disappoint.

“Per our calculations, even if there is drastic restructuring and significant cost cuts, spending may still outpace [revenue] growth in the near term. Consequentially, we believe that the terms of a debt refinancing may have a negative impact on equity holders,” Karnauskas said.

Last week, Wedbush Securities analyst David Nierengarten tried to make the point that Dendreon had no future and was headed toward bankruptcy when he offered up a price target of zero for the company. He told the Seattle Times last week that it’s the only such forecast he’s offered, pointing out that it has $620 million in convertible debt due in 2016 and it’s $280 million in cash is being consumed at $50 million a quarter.

Dendreon said earlier this month that 2014 sales of Provenge would not exceed last year’s $325 million. Karnauskas calculates that even with $165 million cost cuts, Dendreon will have to grow sales to $525 million over the next seven years to support current share price levels.

Dendreon shares have been tumbling since 2011, when the company abandoned its forecasts on Provenge. Shares, which had peaked in the mid-$50 range in 2010, fell in late summer of 2011 from the mid-$30 level down to single digits. They have remained mostly below $10 since."

 

The company is under federal investigation as well according to their 10Q.

 

"Dendreon said earlier this month that 2014 sales of Provenge would not exceed last year’s $325 million. Karnauskas calculates that even with $165 million cost cuts, Dendreon will have to grow sales to $525 million over the next seven years to support current share price levels."

That has to be the stupidest statement I have ever heard from a stock analyst. First of all management has never spoken about "2014" sales, they have spoken about 2013 sales in their conference call. At $525 million in sales we will be highly profitable and the stock will take off. She must be working for some hedgefund short the stock.

None of their silly comments matter anyway since I am paid for sales and not with Dendreon stock. My sales are growing quite well thank you.

 

Reap what you sow.

 

I just saw a big, white rabbit go by.

 

I wish I could give this 5 stars

 

What does it mean? reference to Grace slick?

 

Both a reference to Alice in Wonderland and Jeferson Airplane ( Grace Slick)

 

Wonderland would be a land where this company could have a future. Pure fantasy.

 

Harsh, but true

 

You got that right. The article is completely inaccurate and pure nonsense.

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1655422-terminal-diagnosis-despite-what-you-may-have-heard-dendreon-is-a-dead-company-walking?source=email_rt_article_readmore

 

Aurthor is sophisticated. He profits off emotional people in a place where you can't be emotional.

 

There are 183 large financial institution investors that hold large amounts of Dendreon stock. Many of which have been substantially increasing their holdings:

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/dndn/institutional-holdings

I would say these 183 institutions strongly disagree with the "author".

I would say article is a poor joke. Here is the author's profile:

http://seekingalpha.com/author/scott-fearon

He has written a total of 2 articles (both in the last 11 days) including this nonsense in his career which began in "1990":

http://seekingalpha.com/author/scott-fearon/articles

Scott Fearon (great name for a short investor "Fear-On") claims to manage Foundation Partners, LP in Marin County, California. When you google "Foundation Partners, LP in Marin County, California" no such company exists:

https://www.google.com/#fp=d376bad89d5753b2&q=Foundation+Partners%2C+LP+in+Marin+County%2C+California

 

From 8 to 2.

75% return. Smart guy. No emotion always wins.

 

I guess it doesnt matter that the author was right from pps 8 and any firms that held were wrong.

 

Actually if he closes out his position at 2, that would be a 300% return. The guy also made salient points. Lots of LLC's don't have websites, Mr. As well.

 

I agree the article's author has zero credibility. Foundation Partners does not exist so what credibility can the article have? Vanguard I have heard of and they are buying Dendreon stock heavily. This is a temporary decline in our stock. It has happened before and will happen again. Building a company and investing is about the long-term. Provenge European approval will occur with a few weeks, which will prove to be a major long-term advance for the company. I work for the company and the future is bright. Lot of good things and major positive developments happening at the company which the general public is not aware of.

 

Those institutions lost a shitload of money. It happens. The market is a great institution. The market values Dendreon at about a 1/2 billion dollars.

 

Sure seems like the article and most of this thread is yet another destructive scam. Any "clown" can author a "Seeking Alpha" stock blog.