Wall Street Thinks Folotyn is a bust

Is it? Why are sales so shitty? Who are to blame?

 

Sadly, the product was over hyped from the get go. You know the story...small company, one product defines its commercial capability, company desperate to prove it is different from the sea of other biotech companies, untested and over-confident leadership team, CEO trying to prove that he is competent and has the bandwidth for the role, etc. All the ingredients that lead to a terrible, embarrassing implosion.

The way it works is first the front-line employees lose confidence, then the leadership team around the CEO, then the shareholders, then the board and then finally the CEO himself. We are at the shareholder stage (can you say PPS of $3.90?).

I feel trapped...do I stay on board and watch the ice melt, or, hope that a miracle happens?

 

Never ignore your instincts. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, well you get the point. A lot of good people place their faith in others against their intuition, and its usually a mistake. Take a look around and realize there are a lot of quality people you work with who are the beginning of a great network to find a better opportunity. You and everyone deserves a workplace that provides a positive working environment and fair, supportive management.

 

Run don't walk..............get the hell out of here. We were all sold a bag of dirt. Folotyn is Fools Gold.

 

Schick with the new Folotyn tag line....fools gold!

 

This post was written in August. $3.90 per share very prophetic. Can we possibly go to ASH at less than $4.00 share?

 

How much are you selling to CTCL and NSCLC market?

 

We are not selling any in CTCL or lung. We really arent selling into rrPTCL either. The pool of patients just doesnt exist. Look for a good Q4 and a massive layoff-reorg next year. We cant sustain the spending with this level of sales.

 

So you are saying that we are going to report a good Q4 number? Are you seeing sales?

 

11.5 is my final guesstimate.

 

That would be a good number. If we squeeze 11 to 12 that would make it easier for PB to sell the company.

 

What wall st doesnt realize is that PB has lost the sales team, the clinical team, the marketing team, and most of us in home office. No one respects him internally and we all understand that the launch and potential of FOLOTYN was completely overestimated and a failure.

There is no hope for ptcl as folotyn will need to be efficacious in solid/lung or it will a 3rd, 4th, or 5th line option for patients. Europe will not pay for a 67K/cycle drug without any demostrated survival benefit, Asia might and thats were the potential lies. Allos is on borrowed time now that no company wants to step up and absorb a company losing 100 Million per year on sales of 27 million with unfunded clinical trial costs estimated to be another 100-120 million.

 

$11.5M Q4 + a lung SPA + MAA filing would be a very nice flow of near term news.

Might be enough for a low ball offer of $5-6 plus CVRs around lung milestones.

 

PB can't be happy with the constant dropping of the stock price. If they are negotiating a sale, the people looking to buy can see no one wants this stock. How is the home office reacting to the drop drop dropping of the stock price.

 

Its indicative of what we think of the future. PB doesnt own any shares he only sells options for "planning purposes". When the chief doesnt have any skin in the game why be optimistic? He fired his best friend and we continue down the same path? Nothing has really changed since Caruso was fired. It was either Jim or Paul or both. PB chose Jim. The board sits idle while we do nothing and the stock continues to tank. We cannot continue to operate if we dont dilute. Sales of folotyn were projected to be 70-75 million in the launch year with year 2 btween 85-110 million. What the street doesnt realize is that the disease is really rare. No one is going to their community doc in bum fuck ville to diagnos and treat rrptcl! This diisease is understood and treated by the best and brightest at the biggest centers in the united states. That therapy includes folotyn but it also includes a host of P2 new drugs and other experimental agents including stem cell tplant. What we've learned is that patients do not stay on drug for long, they get put on as a last resort, they relapse or dose reduce due to mucositis and then they are done.

 

Just Amazing!! I know of several current and "let-go" employees who last December and January expressed what you just wrote about the PTCL Market and treatment, including side effect issues ..... no one listened and see where the company is now. It was always just a business deal for the top brass to rake-in money for themselves. What a shame for all of the talented dedicated folks still there.

 

Down another 11 cents today. What happened at ASH? The press releases on Phase II and especially Phase I data seem to be a desperate attempt to get attention. Especially a poster session of further evaluation of a Phase I. Analysts seemed to cut into future potential in other indications by competitors in those areas like Seattle Genetics. What was the mood at the booth and from customers? Think I might need to sell this and take my loss to offset most everything else that has gone up this year.

 

Nothing happened at ASH or ASCO for that matter. There isnt a meaningful market for rrPTCL and the mood at the booth from our employees was how the hell do we get out of here? The mood from customers was more of the usual "I havent seen PTCL since my fellowship"

As for SGEN we all would love to go there. Very nice ORR for SGN35 and most importantly a benign adverse event profile, at least compared to FOLOTYN. I disagree with my co-workers in that we will be sold soon. I dont think so. The stock will likely continue to drift lower as long as mgt avoids discussing the implication of dilution or commercial partnership. We have limited funds to finance current obligations, like traveling all over the globe for a 1 hour presentation, great meals, dinner programs and christmas parties, let alone our clinical trial obligations.

Dont believe the 11.5 million hype either. Way lower.

 

December has been great. Record sales, new account orders, patients responding to dosing guidance. Look for 12+! The worm has finally turned! Q1 is going to be great!

 

PB and Shick now posting!