2021 Projections

Discussion in 'Supernus' started by anonymous, Feb 25, 2021 at 5:05 PM.

Tags: Add Tags
  1. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Supernus projects $10M in net product sales for 812 for 2021. This appears to be the launch of OXR all over again. Far from being a blockbuster.
     

  2. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

     
  3. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Under promise over deliver. 812 will be huge for us!
     
  4. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Rockville made it clear with their projections yesterday that 812 is in fact a lemon!!
     
  5. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Who's watching?
    Tell me, who's watching?
    Who's watching me?
    I'm just an average man with an average life
    I work from nine to five, hey, hell, I pay the price
    All I want is to be left alone in my average home
    But why do I always feel like I'm in the Twilight zone and?
    I always feel like somebody's watching me
    And I have no privacy (ooh ooh)
    I always feel like somebody's watching me
    Tell me is it just a dream?
     
  6. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Rockville made it clear with their projections yesterday that 812 is in fact a lemon!!
     
  7. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    brother you are off the deep end, you need help.
     
  8. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Is this what you do when you can't defend your position? You are pathetic.
     
  9. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Someone please elaborate on the projections of 812?? Sounds like Oxtellar XR launch
     
  10. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    looney tunes
     
  11. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Agreed. I wasn’t here for the launch of Oxtellar XR but I heard it was considered the worst launch in pharmaceutical history. $10M doesn’t seem like a “conservative” projection, it seems more like a “fearful” projection. This product needs to produce or else I’m out. Low or no bonus is no longer acceptable.
     
  12. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    I am just a rep so I obviously have no idea but my best guess is it’s a low projection designed to be beat to look good for the street. Also could be low this first year based on heavy sampling and rebate programs to get patients started. Again, I don’t know, but those seem more logical to me than them just thinking this thing will flop.
     
  13. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    If this product is covered it will be a huge success. If Corporate Accounts thinks they can enact the same strategy with 812 that they had with TXR and OXR they are crazy. Once approved we can’t sit back and wait for payers to call. Corporate Accounts has to get this product on Medicaid formulary nationwide, not just a few states. If you thought there was a high percentage of epilepsy lives with Medicaid coverage it’s even higher with adhd lives. This product will have enough data to compel doctors to use it, if we don’t have coverage this product will flop.

    Case closed
     
  14. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    I understand, but for them to say we can capture 5-10% of the market then project 10 million in 6 months is simply insane. We need a better explanation from management. 10 million is a drop in the adhd bucket. If their plan is for us to sample for 6 months then we won’t get paid for that. So their strategy is to hope for this product to get covered after 6 months of sampling? How are we supposed to get paid? Also, investors were never impressed when the initial data first came out. Investors already think this is strattera all over again. Also, if we wait to build demand in hopes for coverage and 812 doesn’t live up to its expectations it will not be covered.
     
  15. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    Samples, copay assistance, and ins rebates are how you get a high volume of patients on new drugs in a crowded space. High volume is how you get payers attention.
     
  16. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    So you do intend to implement the same failed strategy seen with TXR and OXR. This product is DOA.
     
  17. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    It’s safe to say to put aside all of your hopes about 812. We have been told that it’s the “ big product” that will launch us into a different level. However, the projections speak clearly. 812 is another XR generic that will not be any different from Oxtellar XR.
     
  18. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    After I saw 812’s projections for 2021 it made sense why Supernus never took advantage of the fast track designation from the FDA. We have never been in any rush to get to a product that will likely peak at $50M in net product sales.
     
  19. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    810 was granted fast track designation, not 812.
     
  20. anonymous

    anonymous Guest

    And before you say something stupid like “810’s FaiLUrE iS pRooF ThAT RoCkvIlLe cAnt GeT a DrUg ApPrOvEd.” Please remember that this happens all the time in pharma. The fast track designation was based on the potential of it being the first molecule to treat IA. The study didn’t work out. It happens.