Nah, deal will be approved. FTC has failed to block any merger in the last year. Pfizer and Seagen products don't overlap after divesture of Bavencio. This is probably how it will go:
- End of May, FTC requests more information (stock drops)
- FTC files suit to block deal. Although probably unlikely as Pfizer isn't into the same bundling practices as Amgen and is riding the halo effect of being the savior of the Covid crisis
- FTC case goes to a Trump judge who tosses it out. SGEN stock goes up to $215 at least.
Deal will close, it's just when. Initially I was hopeful for October 2023. Now I think it may be March 2024, which is fine because I can collect partial focus grant and bonus and bounce.