2021 Projections



Rockville made it clear with their projections yesterday that 812 is in fact a lemon!!
Who's watching?
Tell me, who's watching?
Who's watching me?
I'm just an average man with an average life
I work from nine to five, hey, hell, I pay the price
All I want is to be left alone in my average home
But why do I always feel like I'm in the Twilight zone and?
I always feel like somebody's watching me
And I have no privacy (ooh ooh)
I always feel like somebody's watching me
Tell me is it just a dream?
 
Who's watching?
Tell me, who's watching?
Who's watching me?
I'm just an average man with an average life
I work from nine to five, hey, hell, I pay the price
All I want is to be left alone in my average home
But why do I always feel like I'm in the Twilight zone and?
I always feel like somebody's watching me
And I have no privacy (ooh ooh)
I always feel like somebody's watching me
Tell me is it just a dream?

brother you are off the deep end, you need help.
 
Who's watching?
Tell me, who's watching?
Who's watching me?
I'm just an average man with an average life
I work from nine to five, hey, hell, I pay the price
All I want is to be left alone in my average home
But why do I always feel like I'm in the Twilight zone and?
I always feel like somebody's watching me
And I have no privacy (ooh ooh)
I always feel like somebody's watching me
Tell me is it just a dream?

Is this what you do when you can't defend your position? You are pathetic.
 
Who's watching?
Tell me, who's watching?
Who's watching me?
I'm just an average man with an average life
I work from nine to five, hey, hell, I pay the price
All I want is to be left alone in my average home
But why do I always feel like I'm in the Twilight zone and?
I always feel like somebody's watching me
And I have no privacy (ooh ooh)
I always feel like somebody's watching me
Tell me is it just a dream?

looney tunes
 
Someone please elaborate on the projections of 812?? Sounds like Oxtellar XR launch

Agreed. I wasn’t here for the launch of Oxtellar XR but I heard it was considered the worst launch in pharmaceutical history. $10M doesn’t seem like a “conservative” projection, it seems more like a “fearful” projection. This product needs to produce or else I’m out. Low or no bonus is no longer acceptable.
 
Someone please elaborate on the projections of 812?? Sounds like Oxtellar XR launch

I am just a rep so I obviously have no idea but my best guess is it’s a low projection designed to be beat to look good for the street. Also could be low this first year based on heavy sampling and rebate programs to get patients started. Again, I don’t know, but those seem more logical to me than them just thinking this thing will flop.
 
I am just a rep so I obviously have no idea but my best guess is it’s a low projection designed to be beat to look good for the street. Also could be low this first year based on heavy sampling and rebate programs to get patients started. Again, I don’t know, but those seem more logical to me than them just thinking this thing will flop.

If this product is covered it will be a huge success. If Corporate Accounts thinks they can enact the same strategy with 812 that they had with TXR and OXR they are crazy. Once approved we can’t sit back and wait for payers to call. Corporate Accounts has to get this product on Medicaid formulary nationwide, not just a few states. If you thought there was a high percentage of epilepsy lives with Medicaid coverage it’s even higher with adhd lives. This product will have enough data to compel doctors to use it, if we don’t have coverage this product will flop.

Case closed
 
I am just a rep so I obviously have no idea but my best guess is it’s a low projection designed to be beat to look good for the street. Also could be low this first year based on heavy sampling and rebate programs to get patients started. Again, I don’t know, but those seem more logical to me than them just thinking this thing will flop.

I understand, but for them to say we can capture 5-10% of the market then project 10 million in 6 months is simply insane. We need a better explanation from management. 10 million is a drop in the adhd bucket. If their plan is for us to sample for 6 months then we won’t get paid for that. So their strategy is to hope for this product to get covered after 6 months of sampling? How are we supposed to get paid? Also, investors were never impressed when the initial data first came out. Investors already think this is strattera all over again. Also, if we wait to build demand in hopes for coverage and 812 doesn’t live up to its expectations it will not be covered.
 
If this product is covered it will be a huge success. If Corporate Accounts thinks they can enact the same strategy with 812 that they had with TXR and OXR they are crazy. Once approved we can’t sit back and wait for payers to call. Corporate Accounts has to get this product on Medicaid formulary nationwide, not just a few states. If you thought there was a high percentage of epilepsy lives with Medicaid coverage it’s even higher with adhd lives. This product will have enough data to compel doctors to use it, if we don’t have coverage this product will flop.

Case closed

Samples, copay assistance, and ins rebates are how you get a high volume of patients on new drugs in a crowded space. High volume is how you get payers attention.
 
It’s safe to say to put aside all of your hopes about 812. We have been told that it’s the “ big product” that will launch us into a different level. However, the projections speak clearly. 812 is another XR generic that will not be any different from Oxtellar XR.
 
After I saw 812’s projections for 2021 it made sense why Supernus never took advantage of the fast track designation from the FDA. We have never been in any rush to get to a product that will likely peak at $50M in net product sales.
 
After I saw 812’s projections for 2021 it made sense why Supernus never took advantage of the fast track designation from the FDA. We have never been in any rush to get to a product that will likely peak at $50M in net product sales.

And before you say something stupid like “810’s FaiLUrE iS pRooF ThAT RoCkvIlLe cAnt GeT a DrUg ApPrOvEd.” Please remember that this happens all the time in pharma. The fast track designation was based on the potential of it being the first molecule to treat IA. The study didn’t work out. It happens.
 


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