Interviewing

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If you watch the latest bio podcast from Jefferies etc from the Boston conference you will understand why Tarsus won't be taken over. The top 3 funds discuss key issues. Good luck
 
Thanks for sharing The podcast is not easy to find. It talks about 5 min on Tarsus as the topic is about M and A in Pharma,. It looks like 50/50 based on the discussion but the longer it takes may not be a great sign. Sounds like M and A is just kind of dead right now. We all thought we be acquired by now. I guess we wait.
 
What territory are you interviewing for? I could shed some light depending on where
 
Where are the refill rates? Why is the company not sharing those?

Buyers are waiting for…


  1. Durability data — Big pharmas want at least 12–18 months of commercial data to model:
    • % of patients who require retreatment annually
    • % who never return
    • Any drop-off in prescriber enthusiasm
  2. Market penetration clarity — Management says ~25M Americans have Demodex blepharitis; but:
    • Not all are diagnosed
    • Not all will seek treatment
    • Insurers may resist paying if symptoms aren’t severe
      This means the true economically reachable population could be far smaller.
  3. International launch proof — Japan, EU, and China all have large potential pools, but until one of these markets starts contributing, an acquirer is modeling only U.S. revenues.

If refill rates average 20–30% annually, revenue flattens much sooner than chronic therapies.
Unlike chronic dry-eye drugs (Restasis, Xiidra) that are taken indefinitely, XDEMVY is closer to a procedure in revenue profile — spike on treatment, then a long gap.
Tarsus has not yet published hard refill percentages — analysts keep asking, but management has been cautious.
 
O this is very interesting and raises a lot of questions IF an acquire is looking at this, their big question is when do they break even.

Current Market cap is $2Billion; lets say they pay 3$ billion. Back of the envelop math using $400M year run rate with a moderate growth rate 15% YoY break even is mid 2030.

Then when do sales peak? lets say 2027-2028 which is in the 5 year window that most use

Assume 12.5% refill rate due to acute treatment

Let say peak in 27 and new patient starts drop off 10% (use your own number)

Total net sales till 2038 would be about $4.5 billion --net sales? 2.5b? you never break even under these assumptions

Use different growth rates and refill rates etc maybe price increase too; back of the envelop 12$B? in sales net profits? $5b?

Play around the numbers-who know what the real refill rates will be?

Im not sure anyone looking at this would be that attractive to this one asset?

Not sure how much they apply to other products or other indications. But right now given the look on the trajectory--someone probably waits a little longer to see the pattern of growth and ensure they understand refill rates.

But maybe this is all wrong

Ask your number gurus see what they say
 


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