I’m interviewing with a couple companies, and tarsus. What’s it’s like over there? Have things gotten better?
Interviewing
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I wasn't aware there was a problem. What region are you interested in? Tarsus overall has been a good experience.
Having some issues. Not going to be a steady ride from here. Not sure where the company is going tbh. Everyone was hoping to be acquired by now
Why would you think Tarsus would be acquired? Given the Trump stuff everyone is going to wait to see what he does with Price increases
The ultimate call is to be acquired You're a single product company with poor coverage. You're not making a lot of money with the alternative pharmacies.
If you watch the latest bio podcast from Jefferies etc from the Boston conference you will understand why Tarsus won't be taken over. The top 3 funds discuss key issues. Good luck
Thanks for sharing The podcast is not easy to find. It talks about 5 min on Tarsus as the topic is about M and A in Pharma,. It looks like 50/50 based on the discussion but the longer it takes may not be a great sign. Sounds like M and A is just kind of dead right now. We all thought we be acquired by now. I guess we wait.
What territory are you interviewing for? I could shed some light depending on where
Only low class idiots would have taken a job here Didn't do your homework!!!
Where are the refill rates? Why is the company not sharing those?
Buyers are waiting for…
If refill rates average 20–30% annually, revenue flattens much sooner than chronic therapies.
Unlike chronic dry-eye drugs (Restasis, Xiidra) that are taken indefinitely, XDEMVY is closer to a procedure in revenue profile — spike on treatment, then a long gap.
Tarsus has not yet published hard refill percentages — analysts keep asking, but management has been cautious.
Buyers are waiting for…
- Durability data — Big pharmas want at least 12–18 months of commercial data to model:
- % of patients who require retreatment annually
- % who never return
- Any drop-off in prescriber enthusiasm
- Market penetration clarity — Management says ~25M Americans have Demodex blepharitis; but:
- Not all are diagnosed
- Not all will seek treatment
- Insurers may resist paying if symptoms aren’t severe
This means the true economically reachable population could be far smaller.
- International launch proof — Japan, EU, and China all have large potential pools, but until one of these markets starts contributing, an acquirer is modeling only U.S. revenues.
If refill rates average 20–30% annually, revenue flattens much sooner than chronic therapies.
Unlike chronic dry-eye drugs (Restasis, Xiidra) that are taken indefinitely, XDEMVY is closer to a procedure in revenue profile — spike on treatment, then a long gap.
Tarsus has not yet published hard refill percentages — analysts keep asking, but management has been cautious.
O this is very interesting and raises a lot of questions IF an acquire is looking at this, their big question is when do they break even.
Current Market cap is $2Billion; lets say they pay 3$ billion. Back of the envelop math using $400M year run rate with a moderate growth rate 15% YoY break even is mid 2030.
Then when do sales peak? lets say 2027-2028 which is in the 5 year window that most use
Assume 12.5% refill rate due to acute treatment
Let say peak in 27 and new patient starts drop off 10% (use your own number)
Total net sales till 2038 would be about $4.5 billion --net sales? 2.5b? you never break even under these assumptions
Use different growth rates and refill rates etc maybe price increase too; back of the envelop 12$B? in sales net profits? $5b?
Play around the numbers-who know what the real refill rates will be?
Im not sure anyone looking at this would be that attractive to this one asset?
Not sure how much they apply to other products or other indications. But right now given the look on the trajectory--someone probably waits a little longer to see the pattern of growth and ensure they understand refill rates.
But maybe this is all wrong
Ask your number gurus see what they say
Current Market cap is $2Billion; lets say they pay 3$ billion. Back of the envelop math using $400M year run rate with a moderate growth rate 15% YoY break even is mid 2030.
Then when do sales peak? lets say 2027-2028 which is in the 5 year window that most use
Assume 12.5% refill rate due to acute treatment
Let say peak in 27 and new patient starts drop off 10% (use your own number)
Total net sales till 2038 would be about $4.5 billion --net sales? 2.5b? you never break even under these assumptions
Use different growth rates and refill rates etc maybe price increase too; back of the envelop 12$B? in sales net profits? $5b?
Play around the numbers-who know what the real refill rates will be?
Im not sure anyone looking at this would be that attractive to this one asset?
Not sure how much they apply to other products or other indications. But right now given the look on the trajectory--someone probably waits a little longer to see the pattern of growth and ensure they understand refill rates.
But maybe this is all wrong
Ask your number gurus see what they say
That is sound math however you need to build in pipeline value.
Right now the pipeline is viewed by many as neutral; given the risk to Demodex -which will be given a discount even if they come out with base scenario due to refill rates etc) you still get an overall discount on pipeline. You will never get 3-4 x on current market cap- not based on current comps and status of bio upside maybe 4-5Bmarket cap? I give that as a range but gut tells me NOt 5b given what we have been witnessing
Still a lot of questions to be answered and unfortunately i dont have all the inputs to properly assess. But im going to take a closer look.
But no one probably pulls the trigger until there is sufficient data on refill rates and grounded in what.where may be peak.
What does management want too
That s not to say an acquirer will look at it as netural; the big issue is the markets you are going to play in are RIsk markets from a few vantage pointsRight now the pipeline is viewed by many as neutral; given the risk to Demodex -which will be given a discount even if they come out with base scenario due to refill rates etc) you still get an overall discount on pipeline. You will never get 3-4 x on current market cap- not based on current comps and status of bio upside maybe 4-5Bmarket cap? I give that as a range but gut tells me NOt 5b given what we have been witnessing
Still a lot of questions to be answered and unfortunately i dont have all the inputs to properly assess. But im going to take a closer look.
But no one probably pulls the trigger until there is sufficient data on refill rates and grounded in what.where may be peak.
What does management want too
Comparable Deal Multiples and Insights
| Acquisition | Asset Stage | Total Deal Value | Approx Multiple* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyebiotech → Merck | Early clinical (Phase I) | ~$3 B (incl. milestones) | — (high novelty) |
| Iveric Bio → Astellas | Late-stage (GA therapy) | ~$5.9 B | N/A |
| Xiidra → Bausch + Lomb | Marketed (~$487M sales) | ~$1.75 B upfront | ~3.5× sales |
| Cimerli Portfolio → Sandoz | Commercial/licensing | ~$170 M | Small licensing deal |
*Exact multiples often hidden due to milestone components.
There is no way anyone is going to get a shit load upfront o these early stage products. There will be milestones attached. No question. Going into phase 2. Highly possible any deal with current product in market would have milestones put to it if run rate is less the $500m year
The value of a deal would be upfront and contingences (CVRs)
Pipeline Value
- TP-04 (Ocular Rosacea):
- Large underserved market (15–18M U.S. patients).
- Pre-Phase 2, so heavy discounting — maybe $200M–$500M upfront value in a deal now, with more if de-risked.
- TP-05 (Lyme Prevention):
- Novel category, but Phase 2+ approval is ~5–6 years away.
- Could be valued at $150M–$400M in current form
What Gets Us to $4B
For $4B+ in total transaction value (cash + milestones), you’d need:
- XDEMVY® annualized sales >$500M and growing
- Positive Phase 2 data for TP-04 and/or TP-05 by deal time
- Competitive M&A environment in ophthalmology (bidding pressure)
- Strategic buyer willing to bet on multi-indication lotilaner franchise
If these stars align, then:
- Upfront cash: $2.5B–$3B
- Milestones/CVRs: $1B–$1.5B
- Total headline: ~$4B–$4.5B
Risks to Hitting $4B
Slower-than-expected XDEMVY® adoption- Weak TP-04 or TP-05 data
- Buyer appetite for early-stage ophthalmology assets cools
- General biotech M&A slowdown
- TP‑04 (Ocular Rosacea) & TP‑05 (Lyme Prevention)
- Similar to Eyebiotech’s early assets, these could be valued at hundreds of millions upfront, with substantial milestone structures—especially as a multi-indication lotilaner platform.
This is all guess assumption
Good luck to all
The run rate is $400 m per year. they are going to pay on that maybe 3x not what company thinks is peak Not in this instance. Could see a deal in the 2.5-3b but that will be for everything if you are using 3x on te $400 m sales 1.2 b for current asset and you get the rest on pipeline but Yeah going to be CVRs on that and it wont be 3x based on sales. Based on other models it's 20-30% of potential sales upfront. So get a premium based on where the share price has been in teh 40-45$ maybe gets you to 55-60 at best. Would be surprised if you get their but maybe 65 in get all cash $3b. 30% premium? i dont know in these markets
Is Tarsus a eye company or a company focused in unmet needs. Why would B and L buy Tarsus--won't eye companies shy away due to the other assets not all in eye? Who would then be a contender? Seems limits who may acuqire form eye care